United States - Economy
May 22 2013 - We expect US household finances to continue to improve over the medium term, supporting an uptick in consumer activity. A dwindling debt burden, improving consumer sentiment, and higher net worth will support an increase in real private consumption, driving real GDP growth of 2.1% this year and 2.7% in 2014....
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Asia - Forex
May 23 2013 - BMI View: With bubbles in the Australian and New Zealand dollars well and truly bursting and regional bellwethers such as the Singapore dollar breaking critical support levels, Asia FX look vulnerable to some serious downside. One market that has yet to move is that of the Chinese yuan. However, given the currency's considerable real effective appreciation, coupled with the renewed weakness in the country's manufacturing sector, we believe it is only a matter of time before it follows suit. As such, we have introduced a bearish view on the 12-month CNY non-deliverable forward (NDF) outright in our asset class strategy....
Poland - Banking/Finance
May 22 2013 - We maintain our neutral outlook towards Poland's banking sector although the possibility of a rebound in 2014 profitability is growing. Over the near-term, the Q113 collapse in domestic demand is likely to weigh on credit growth, particularly on SME and corporate loan books. The slump in economic activity is also liable to reduce profitability in 2013, as bank provisioning will likely increase in anticipation of a slight rise in non-performing loans. With the 2012 rally in domestic debt unlikely to repeat itself this year, we expect gains generated from bond holdings will be lower than in 2012...
Asia - Political Risk
May 22 2013 - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is actively seeking to boost his country's influence in South East Asia to counterbalance China, with the US broadly supporting Japan as part of its 'pivot' towards Asia. South East Asian economies should benefit from increased Chinese and Japanese economic incentives as a result....
