BLOG: Risk Watchdog

Updated daily by key members of Business Monitor International's Country Risk team, The Risk Watchdog blog gives you up-to-date insight and comment from our analysts around the world, covering global financial markets, economic analysis and political risk.

 

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BMI provides data, analysis, ratings and forecasts on country risk and industry sectors for 170 markets. Our customers and clients comprise multinational companies, financial institutions, governments and academia across 140 countries, including 400 of the Global Fortune 500 companies.

Country Risk
South Africa: Rand - Bearish Technical Picture

February 8 2010

BMI View: The South African rand looks set for a spell of short-term weakness on the back of US dollar strength and waning risk ...

Financial Markets
Lat Am: CDS - Mexico To Move Inside Brazil

February 8 2010

Regular readers of the Latin America Daily Financial Alert will be familiar with our bearish stance on Brazil's US dollar debt. Since ...

Industry
VW Prepares To Go Head-To-Head With Toyota

February 8 2010

Germany's Volkswagen (VW) will launch its newly developed medium-size pick-up, the Amarok, in Brazil in April 2010.

Companies
Vodafone Still Focusing On High-Value Subscribers

February 8 2010

Vodafone has unveiled a range of advanced new products, either soon to be launched or already partly introduced to the Egyptian mark ...

 Latest Reports From Our Store
NEW! company profiles
- £800
Read More Oil & Gas Company Profiles - Middle East
32 company profiles    Pub date: November 12 2009    Annual
Company Overview, Contact Details, Key Personnel, SWOT Analysis, Competitive Positioning, Strategy and Latest Developments for multinational oil & gas companies in the Middle East.
Country Risk | Country risk analysis, macroeconomic forecasts and business environment rankings, covering 175 markets worldwide
Special Reports
- £255
Read More Emerging Markets Take Centre Stage: A Dramatic Shift in Purchasing Power
58 pages    Pub date: February 4 2010   
EM To Outperform After years of progress on regulatory reform, macroeconomic restructuring and institutional convergence following the painful events of the Asian and Russian crises of 1997/98 and the Argentine debt default of 2001, emerging markets (EM) are, for the most part, far healthier than ever be...
- £255
Read More Afghanistan: Challenges Beyond The Presidential Elections
21 pages    Pub date: September 1 2009   
The report outlines the challenges and threats facing Afghanistan over the coming years, and the West's options to bring stability.
- £330
Read More Finding Hidden Potential In The South Pacific
58 pages    Pub date: August 28 2009   
This report examines the economic and political outlook for the South Pacific states. It is complemented by 10-year forecasts of Australia, New Zealand and China.
- £330
Read More Caribbean 2009-10: Trouble In Paradise
51 pages    Pub date: May 14 2009   
BMI presents a comprehensive report on the Caribbean, including our views on the future of offshore financial centres, the diversification of tourism, and the rising tide of crime.
LATEST Business Forecast Reports
- £475
Read More Albania Business Forecast Report
54 pages    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Political Crisis To Undermine Economic Stability This will be a difficult year for Albania as the government struggles to overcome one of the country’s most acute political crises in recent years, at a time when the economy remains mired in recession. In the Q110 Business Forecast Report, we show ho...
- £475
Read More Chile Business Forecast Report
74 pages    ISSN: 1474-144X    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Robust Recovery In Store In 2010 In our latest Chile Business Forecast Report, we outline the signals pointing towards a relatively robust economic recovery in Latin America’s fifth largest economy. Moreover, with December’s presidential election rapidly approaching, we examine the poli...
- £475
Read More China Business Forecast Report
74 pages    ISSN: 1470-7381    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
After bouncing back strongly from the impact of the global financial crisis, the Chinese economy is faced with the prospect of tighter monetary conditions in 2010, which will put the growth recovery to the test. We expect a slowdown in the economy in H210 as the government normalises monetary policy amid rising consumer price in...
- £475
Read More Hungary Business Forecast Report
70 pages    ISSN: 1474-1431    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Will Fidesz Reverse Reforms? Hungary remains mired in its worst recession since 1991, and we do not expect to see the central European economy post positive growth until mid-2010. That said,we still hold to a relatively optimistic medium-term outlook for the economy, with risks to our re...
- £475
Read More Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report
60 pages    ISSN: 1756-7971    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
The Moment Of Truth Elections are coming to Côte d’Ivoire soon, and along with them the chance to address the chronic political instability that has crippled economic growth for nearly a decade. While we believe further delays will likely push the actual election date past the scheduled...
- £475
Read More Malaysia Business Forecast Report
74 pages    ISSN: 1470-739X    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
The Malaysian economy performed respectably in Q309, registering real GDP growth of -1.2% yo- y, as compared to the -3.9% decline in the preceding quarter. In view of the better-than-expected growth, we now forecast a V-shaped economic recovery of 4.3% in 2010, from an estimated decline of 2.1% in 2009. Importantly, we foresee t...
- £475
Read More Croatia Business Forecast Report
68 pages    ISSN: 1743-8411    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Fiscal Stability Fears Rising Although economic data for the second quarter of 2009 certainly inspire little confidence, we believe that this is likely to mark a turning point in the downturn. That the second-quarter decline in real GDP was less severe than during Q109 is telling, in our...
- £475
Read More India Business Forecast Report
78 pages    ISSN: 1479-6031    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Strong Growth Outlook Despite Fiscal Concerns Despite the severity of the global downturn, and likely subdued growth trajectory of developed economies going forward, we believe that there is a lot to like about India’s economic story over the long term. As we discuss later in the Q1 2010...
- £475
Read More Mexico Business Forecast Report
70 pages    ISSN: 1470-742X    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
New Decade, Same Problems A recent visit to Mexico has served to reinforce our concerns regarding the extent of the challenges facing the country. We have long emphasised the economy’s over-dependence on the US consumer, and our subdued outlook for the latter implies that the Mexican recovery will not be rapid. On the politic...
- £475
Read More Cyprus Business Forecast Report
58 pages    ISSN: 1746-5761    Pub date: February 4 2010    Quarterly   
Expect A Slow Recovery From Recession The Cypriot economy is officially in recession, after posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth H109. On an annual basis, real GDP growth also turned negative (-0.7 y-o-y) in Q209, a far cry from the 4% average growth rate of the last five...
View All 97 Business Forecast Reports
 
LATEST Monitors
- £480
Read More Africa Monitor - East and Central Africa
ISSN: 1754-226X    Monthly   
East and Central Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Africa Monitor - North Africa
ISSN: 1472-1791    Monthly   
North Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Africa Monitor - Southern Africa
ISSN: 1472-1805    Monthly   
Southern Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Africa Monitor - West Africa
ISSN: 1754-2251    Monthly   
West Africa Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Middle East Monitor - East Med
ISSN: 1469-526X    Monthly   
Middle East Monitor, East Med each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Emerging Europe Monitor - Central Europe & Baltic States
ISSN: 1469-5278    Monthly   
Central Europe Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Middle East Monitor - The Gulf
ISSN: 1469-5251    Monthly   
Middle East Monitor, The Gulf each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Emerging Europe Monitor - Russia and CIS
ISSN: 1746-0735    Monthly   
Russia and CIS Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £480
Read More Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe
ISSN: 1469-5286    Monthly   
South East Europe Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment for Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Turkey
- £465
Read More Global Macro Monitor - Sub-Saharan Africa Edition
ISSN: 2041-3440    Monthly   
The Sub Saharan Africa Edition includes BMI's Country Risk and Financial Markets team's global outlook, with unrivalled coverage of developed states combined with a focus on key regional and country-by-country stories from Sub Saharan Africa, all backed by BMI's 25 years of emerging markets specialization.
- £1675
Read More Emerging Markets Monitor
ISSN: 1359-0006    Weekly   
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monitor International’s highly respected assessments of political and macroeconomic risk.
- £1495
Read More Corporate Financing Week
ISSN: 1064-1912    Weekly   
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the key breaking deals.
View All 27 Monitors
 
Industries | Industry trend analysis and forecasts, and competitive intelligence on leading companies, covering 16 industries across 60 markets worldwide
LATEST Special Reports
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Read More Global Infrastructure: Q409 Round Up - An Encouraging End To A Dismal Year
14 pages    Pub date: January 8 2010   
The fourth quarter saw a thaw in bank lending and a recovery in project finance operations. Though multilateral organisations and state-owned development banks played a dominant role, banks, especially from Asia, also had a presence in syndicated loans. One such example is the financing for the Salalah independent water and powe...
- £255
Read More Another Russia-Ukraine Gas Dispute Looming?
9 pages    Pub date: November 30 2009   
In terms of the changed political context since early 2009, Ukraine's presidential elections, which are scheduled to be held on January 17 2010, are now only weeks away. The economic situation is also different. The global economic crisis has resulted in a significant decline in gas consumptionin Ukraine and the EU, with...
- £255
Read More BMI Global Oil Market Report
19 pages    Pub date: November 12 2009   
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published the Q1 2010 edition of our series of Global Oil Market Reports. This report details the major industry events in the Global Oil Market in Q3 and provides Q1 2010 forecasts for supply, demand and prices across both crude oil (OPEC basket, Brent, WTI, Urals, Dubai) and refined products (gasoline, gasoil/diesel, naphtha and jet/kerosene).
- £280
Read More Value Added Services In Africa – The Way Forward
19 pages    Pub date: October 29 2009   
Chapter - Introduction VAS In Africa Chart: Growth Slowing Within Five Years Combatting Falling ARPUs Chart: Not One Market Escapes D...
- £330
Read More The Patent Cliff: Strategies And Tactics For Survival
23 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
The patent cliff is arguably the greatest challenge facing multinational drugmakers. In this special report, BMI outlines the strategies and tactics needed for survival.
- £255
Read More Petrobras: The Latin Major
10 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
BMI takes an in-depth look at Petrobras’ investment plans as it looks to tap potentially gigantic oil reserves offshore Brazil
- £255
Read More FedEx and UPS Prepare To Fight Their Way Through 2009
8 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
Take a 20% pay cut. . . In the current market, FedEx is giving a clear signal that it expects things to get tougher. In December it announced a package of austerity measures. Top of the list was the news that CEO Fred Smith was taking a voluntary 20% pay cut effective from January 2009. Other se...
- £425
Read More Global Economic Downturn: Implications For The Pharmaceutical Industry
44 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
In this special report, BMI assess the impact of the economic downturn on drug expenditure levels in markets across the globe.
- £425
Read More The Advancement Of The 3G Mobile Market In Eastern Europe
107 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
BMI’s report on mobile telecommunications in Emerging Europe covers eight markets, almost all of which have seen mobile penetration pass the 100% mark within the last 24 months. The markets examined in this report are Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine.
- £255
Read More Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis: The Impact On European Energy Security
14 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom restarted gas flows into Ukraine’s pipeline system for transit to Europe on January 20, with Ukraine beginning to receive Russian gas through the Sudzha compressor station at 10.05am (0705GMT).
View All 42 Special Reports
 
LATEST Industry Reports
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Read More United Kingdom Metals Report
47 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
Despite strong growth in British steel and aluminium output forecast for 2010, BMI’s latest UK Metals Report expects long-lasting damage from the recession with plant closures continuing to undermine longterm potential. BMI estimates that in 2009, British crude steel output fell 26.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 9.99mn tonnes, wh...
- £535
Read More Slovenia Telecommunications Report
79 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Annual   
BMI ’s 2009 report on Slovenia’s telecommunications market contains updated and extended forecasts, which predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop to the end of 2013. Our new forecasts reflect Q308 data published by Slovenia’s regulator, the Post Electronic Communicati...
- £535
Read More Vietnam Defence & Security Report
64 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
Vietnam possesses an army with an abundance of operational experience and a strong level of political support for receiving military assistance. As a result, it has the potential to be a dominant regional player in both security and defence. Despite this, the largest inhibiting factor in industry development is a lack of i...
- £535
Read More United Kingdom Oil & Gas Report
80 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
The latest UK Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.47% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 24.51% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 14.04...
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Read More Australia Metals Report
55 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
Industry observers are confident that the Australian metals industry will return to peak condition within the next three years. This largely ties into BMI’s projection for crude steel output to reach 9.3mn tonnes in 2014, compared with 6.2mn tonnes in FY09. The real value of this surge would be witnessed within the iron ore, ...
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Read More Canada Telecommunications Report
90 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
This quarter, BMI has extended its forecasts for mobile, fixed-line and broadband internet subscriber growth to 2014. We have also taken the opportunity to slightly amend our expectations for 2009, taking into account the latest results of Canada’s key service providers and network operators. In the fourth quarter of 2009, we s...
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Read More Israel Telecommunications Report
58 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Annual   
Strong growth has continued in the Israeli mobile market, with the country’s four operators bringing in 137,000 net additions during the first quarter of 2007. This follows a better-than-expected performance in 2006, when our original full-year forecasts were exceeded by the end of the third quarter. As it was, the market ...
- £535
Read More Canada Defence & Security Report
66 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
The Canadian Defence and Security sector has witnessed a surge of activity over Q309, paving the way for an increasingly active final quarter and most certainly an eventful next fiscal year. While the budget for this sector continues to grow, there seems to have been a monumental shift with regards to monetary, defence as ...
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Read More United Kingdom Telecommunications Report
98 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Quarterly   
The UK moved back up to first place in our Business Environment Rankings in Q209, despite a decline in its country risk score. All Western European economies have been impacted by the global financial crisis and this has been reflected across the region with lower scores for country risk across the board. Nonetheless, the...
- £535
Read More United Kingdom Insurance Report
64 pages    Pub date: February 5 2010    Annual   
The UK is both a very large domestic market and also a key player in the world insurance market, especially via Lloyds . In non-life, the UK is the worlds third largest market, behind only the US and Germany. It is also the second largest life market, behind only the US. Even though the UK is a mature and full...
View All 1064 Industry Reports
 
Financial Markets | Analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds
Monitors
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Read More Emerging Markets Monitor
ISSN: 1359-0006    Weekly   
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monitor International’s highly respected assessments of political and macroeconomic risk.
- £1495
Read More Corporate Financing Week
ISSN: 1064-1912    Weekly   
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the key breaking deals.
Company Intelligence | Latest-available research on 150,000 top company executives at 60,000 leading multinational companies, located in emerging markets worldwide
LATEST Company Directories
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Argentina CD-ROM
200 pages    ISSN: 1463-0931    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Argentina CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Dow Quimica Argentina SA Avenida Eduardo Madero 900 Piso 7 Capital Federal 1106 Buenos Aires Argentina Tel: +54 (11) 4319 0100 Fax:...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Indonesia CD-ROM
310 pages    ISSN: 1463-0982    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Indonesia CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile DyStar Colours Indonesia, PT 22/F, Menara Global Building Jl Gatot Subroto, Kav 27 Jakarta 12930 Indonesia Tel: +62 (21) 527 0550 Fax: +62 (21) 527 052...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Russia CD-ROM
218 pages    ISSN: 1463-1016    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Russia CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Allen & Overy Dmitrovskiy per., d. 9 Moscow 107031 Russia Tel: +7 (501) 725 7900 Fax: +7 (501) 725 7949 E-mail: XXX@allenovery.com Webs...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Ukraine CD-ROM
101 pages    ISSN: 1748-6629    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Ukraine database features 1050 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 350 multinational companies in Ukraine, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Australia CD-ROM
280 pages    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Foreign Companies in Australia Yearbook 2009 and CD-Rom 2009 is a researched company database of major international companies in Australia.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Iran CD-ROM
91 pages    ISSN: 1748-653X    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Iran database features over 970 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at over 280 multinational companies in Iran, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Saudi Arabia CD-ROM
252 pages    ISSN: 1470-1510    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Saudi Arabia CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Merck Sharp & Dohme Scientific Office PO Box 17098 Al Batha Street Riyadh 11484 Saudi Arabia Tel: +966 (1) 405 6320 Fax: ...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Venezuela CD-ROM
154 pages    ISSN: 1465-0320    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Venezuela CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Transporte Maritimo Maersk Venezuela SA Av. Ppal Las Mercedes C/Calle Guaicaipuro Torre Shell, piso 7 El Rosal Caracas 1060 Venezuela Tel: +58 (212) 901 27...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Bahrain CD-ROM
85 pages    ISSN: 1748-6505    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Bahrain database features over 570 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at over 170 multinational companies in Bahrain, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Serbia CD-ROM
93 pages    ISSN: 1744-7836    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Serbia database features 920 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 310 multinational companies in Serbia, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Vietnam CD-ROM
202 pages    ISSN: 1743-0046    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Vietnam database features 1610 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 660 multinational companies in Vietnam, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Bosnia-Herzegovina CD-ROM
99 pages    ISSN: 1748-6513    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Bosnia & Herzegovina database features 760 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 360 multinational companies in Bosnia & Herzegovina, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Kazakhstan & Central Asia CD-ROM
121 pages    ISSN: 1744-7860    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Central Asia database features 1060 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 550 multinational companies in Central Asia, across 34 industry sectors.
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Singapore CD-ROM
434 pages    ISSN: 1463-1032    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Singapore CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Linde Material Handling Asia Pacific Pte Ltd 5 Loyang Way Singapore 508720 Singapore Tel: +65 6545 3488 Fax: +65 6545 0627 E-mail: XXX@linde...
- £575
Read More Multinational Companies in Brazil CD-ROM
222 pages    ISSN: 1463-094X    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Brazil CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Delphi Automotive Systems Av Goeas, 1860 Sao Caetano Do Sul - SP Săo Paulo 09550-050 Brazil Tel: +55 (11) 4234 9500 Fax: +55 (11) 4234 9415 ...
View All 51 Company Directories
 
Company Profiles
- £800
Read More Oil & Gas Company Profiles - Middle East
32 company profiles    Pub date: November 12 2009    Annual
Company Overview, Contact Details, Key Personnel, SWOT Analysis, Competitive Positioning, Strategy and Latest Developments for multinational oil & gas companies in the Middle East.
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