Articles List

Articles List

Robust Banking Expansion Ahead

Botswana's well-developed banking sector will continue to expand in 2015, driven largely by private consumption. Declining liquidity and increasing unsecured loans could challenge future stability.

Banking Sector Stable Despite Slowdown

Growth in Chile's commercial banking sector will slow in 2015, with deposit and loan growth set to continue weakening amid tepid real GDP expansion. However, the sector will remain one of the most stable in Latin America, as leverage is low and asset quality is high, indicating low levels of systemic risk.

MXN: Weaker Average Exchange Rate In 2015

The Mexican peso will average weaker in 2015 than in 2014, driven mainly by a bull run in the US dollar. However, following a sharp sell-off in Q414, investment inflows into the newly-liberalised energy sector, combined with strong US demand for Mexican manufactured goods, will result in moderate appreciation of the peso in spot terms in the coming months.

Lower Oil Prices Offer Limited Respite For Current Account

A widening goods trade shortfall will drag Brazil's current account further into deficit in 2015. Stronger goods and services exports will help to narrow the external account deficit thereafter, but more moderate crude oil production and exports than we previously anticipated will temper the pace of improvement.

Several Stakeholders To Benefit From Gilead's Expanded Deals With Indian Generics Companies

Gilead Sciences is leading the way in terms of evading loss of income due to the high risk Indian intellectual property environment. Developing countries will benefit from the expansion of these deals as the pan-genotypic drug in question will save costs in a number of ways. India in particular will be a benefactor due to its high prevalence of genotype 3.

Growth Will Pick Up Despite Fiscal Challenges

Economic growth in Ghana will accelerate, hitting 5.8% in 2015 and 8.0% in 2016 thanks to improved power supplies, rising oil and gas production, and robust investment inflows. Our forecasts are predicated on two key assumptions: a deal is reached with the IMF, and lower oil prices have no meaningful impact on domestic production of oil and gas.

Implications Of King Salman's Cabinet Reshuffle

King Salman's wide-ranging cabinet reshuffle consolidates his authority at the expense of the sons of the previous ruler, Abdullah. The move supports our view that Salman will pursue Abdullah's economic and fiscal policies for the time being. Social reforms will be limited, and we highlight the risk that divisions within the Al Saud family will steadily build up over the coming years, undermining internal stability.

Consolidation Positive For Mobile Market

The sale of Ting Hsin's telecommunication assets to existing players will improve market dynamics and help stabilise mobile ARPUs as operators will rely less on pricing to sustain growth.

Shipping And Infrastructure In Syriza's Crosshairs

Syriza's policies will negatively impact Greece's shipping and infrastructure sectors. A halt to the country's privatisation programme raises the question of where much needed investment for the country's infrastructure will come from. There is a growing threat of renationalisation, which could see the Chinese port operator COSCO Pacific targeted. Such a move would heighten the country's operational risk and damage the country's future attractiveness to investors. Ship-owners are also likely to be hit, with tax breaks likely to be cut and a new era of greater taxation on this sector introduced.