Articles List

Articles List

Chinese Building European Market Share

We expect that rising levels of Chinese infrastructure investment in Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe to persist over the coming years. China has begun targeting the region's infrastructure to develop new routes for Chinese goods into Europe and to gain greater access to European infrastructure projects for Chinese companies.

Political Change To Come Despite Legacy Of Intransigence

The Cuban political system is tightly controlled by a small number of individuals, many of whom are of an advanced age, which presents significant scope for uncertainty over the coming decade. Internationally, Cuba has begun to reposition itself with a view to greatly increasing its engagement with international markets, a strategy that will be supported by the US's softening of policy towards the island.

Tightening Opportunities For IOCs

Oil and gas companies are increasingly supporting their share price through buybacks as growing industry costs are limiting low-risk investment opportunities.

Maliki To Be Ousted From Power

Iraq's current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will fail to retain his position, and prime minister-designate Haider al-Abadi will succeed in forming an inclusive governing coalition over the coming months. While this will increase potential for Iraq to maintain formal unity, the political crisis in the country will continue over the coming years.

Global Cement: Key Views Playing Out

Our core views for the global cement industry are playing out, with the four largest cement producers remaining reliant on developed markets for growth, whilst their exposure to emerging markets hurts their bottom line. We are maintaining our views and continue to highlight Cemex as best placed to mitigate industry headwinds.

IT Solutions Support Gulf Air Turnaround

Consumer facing industries are driving take-up of IT services and solutions in the Middle East. In line with this view, Gulf Air has been one of the largest consumers of IT services in Bahrain, investing heavily in data centre, cloud computing and network performance improvement solutions between 2009 and 2014.

Looser Monetary Policy Will Have Little Growth Effect

A 30-basis-point cut to interest rates in the CEMAC zone will have little impact on the bloc's economy, which remains poor-integrated and heavily dependent on oil exports. Official growth forecasts remain overly optimistic.

Metro Retail Exit Does Not Diminish Positive Vietnam View

The German cash-and-carry retailer Metro is planning to sell its Vietnam business, potentially pulling in EUR1.75bn according to the Financial Times. The decision to leave Vietnam is driven by the need to re-focus on its core Europe business and strengthen its balance sheet, rather than being based on any major structural issues or re-rating in the growth profile of the organised food retail sector. We still see Vietnam as one of South-East Asia's best retail opportunities. A population of nearly 90mn, low formal retail penetration (about 20%) and the prospect for household spending to grow substantially over the next five or so years are key factors behind the view.

Investment Lull To Limit Construction Growth

While the German construction industry has returned to growth over the first half of 2014, in line with our forecasts, we continue to note that activity in the sector will not impress over our 10-year forecast period. Weak domestic consumption and concerns over the impact of the Ukraine crisis will discourage investment. Meanwhile, the government continues to offer little in terms of major infrastructure investment plans

Positive Uranium Outlook Good For Budget Balance

We forecast that Niger's budget balance will return to a deficit in 2014, although it will remain at a manageable level. Income will be boosted by a positive outlook for the extractive industries, though foreign grants will remain essential.