Articles List

Articles List

On The Brink Of Civil War

Prospects of a return to full-blown civil war in Libya are high. As a result, we have lowered the country's Short-Term Political Risk Rating. The economic situation will remain dire, and lawlessness in the country will contribute to increasing risks to regional security.

Long-Term Forecasts Revised On Solar Flare

We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Brazil this quarter as recent developments in the sector are unlikely to impact our near-term forecasts. However, we have revised up our long-term forecasts for the sector to account for a surge in interest in solar energy.

A Step Closer To A Renaissance

The Lower Houses' approval of secondary legislation that would further open up Mexico's O&G sector brings these bills a step closer to implementation.

Prioritising Local Players Has Negative Implications

The Chinese government's decision to restrict use of foreign-based software suppliers suggests heightened risks for foreign players in the market. A list of approved anti-virus software providers excluded US company Symantec and Russia's Kaspersky, although the companies both highlight the restrictions apply only to certain types of procurement. The fallout of the US' surveillance programmes continues to reverberate across all sectors.

Still Expecting A Rate Cut In Q115

Russian rate markets remain overly hawkish towards the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)'s monetary policy trajectory, in our view, following the surprise rate hike on July 25. According to the statement that accompanied the CBR's decision, the 50 basis points rate hike - which took the CBR's benchmark rate to 8.00% - was implemented in response to "the aggravation of geopolitical tension and its potential impact on the rouble exchange rate dynamics".

Rising Instability, Falling Production

Worsening instability will continue to undermine the recovery in Libyan oil output, whilst export volumes will remain critically low.

Deteriorating Technicals Suggest Weakness Ahead For Regional FX

Latin American exchange rates having taken out several key support levels in recent days and we see scope for further depreciation in the coming weeks. An ongoing rally in the US dollar index, a sovereign default in Argentina, and a sell-off across emerging and developed market assets underpin this view.

Industrial Projects And Housing Lead Positive Growth Story

We expect that industrial construction projects along with sizable investment in affordable housing will drive real growth within the Saudi residential and non-residential sector over our 10-year forecast period. Our Infrastructure Key Projects Database show that efforts to expand the non-oil economy is yielding billions of dollars of investments, and our new forecasts for the residential and non-residential construction see real growth averaging 7.6% up to 2023.

Exports And Tourism To Bolster Dubai Growth

Our expectation for Dubai's economy to undergo rapid economic growth has been underlined by recent tourism and export figures. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth for Dubai of 4.3% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015, making the emirate the fastest-growing in the UAE.