BMI's Executive Summary

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Australian new vehicle sales looked certain to breach the one million unit mark for the first time ever in 2007, as sales for the year to November rose by 8% y-o-y to 963,732 units. Despite already projecting sales of over one million units, BMI has raised its sales estimate for the year to growth of 9.5% to take sales to over 1.05mn units. For the year to November, all vehicle segments registered positive growth, led by the upper-large car category, up by 30.5% y-o-y. Sales of SUVs are also up, by 15.6%, underlining the return to popularity of larger vehicles.

However, domestic production operations are under scrutiny as a result of a strengthening Australian dollar and the possibility of lower import tariffs. As the Australian dollar reaches a record high of over US$0.90, import tariffs are also due for a cut from 10% to 5% in 2010, effectively reducing the competitiveness of domestically produced vehicles at home and on the export market. Japan's Toyota has claimed that it will be reviewing its Australian production operations if the tariff is reduced, while General Motors' subsidiary Holden has already seen its exports plummet from a record 60,000 units in 2005 to 46,000 in 2006. As a result, BMI is cautious about suggesting that output will have recovered by more than 1.5% in 2007 and by no more than 13% for the five years to 2012.

Despite being one of the more mature markets in the region, with a relatively high rate of vehicle ownership, Australia ranks joint fourth in BMI's Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region. The country's economic risk rating has been lowered as the risk of inflation could force up interest rates and significantly curb consumer spending. Although the political risk rating has not been changed it will be under review as the new government begins to make its mark. The carmakers producing in Australia still hold the upper hand in the market, despite their concerns over competitiveness. Toyota held 22.4% of the market in the year to November, followed by GM Holden on 14.1% and Ford on 10.3%. However, in terms of sales growth, Toyota and Mitsubishi seem to be the exceptions with growth of 10% and 22.3 y-o-y respectively, while Holden registered growth of just 0.9% and Ford's sales fell by 7.5%. Combined sales of locally manufactured vehicles fell by 0.4% y-o-y, while sales of imported brands rose by 8.8%.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Australia Autos Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia/Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Trade

Economic Contribution

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Australia – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year .

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

Table: Australia Commercial Vehicle Market (2000-2005)

Table: Australia Commercial Vehicle Production

Market Leaders In The Commercial Vehicle Sector

Table: 2004 New Light Utility Registrations By Manufacturer

Table: 2004 New Light Utility Registrations By Manufacturer

Table: 2004 New Van Registrations By Manufacturer

Table: 2004 Heavy Truck (over 16 tonnes) Registrations By Manufacturer

Forecast

Table: Australia Commercial Vehicle Forecast

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Australia Vehicle Production

Table: Australia Vehicle Sales 2005 Top Ten

Table: Australia New Vehicle Sale Jan-Aug 2006

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

Toyota

GM Holden

Nissan

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table: Population .

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Asian Automotive Sources

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BMI's Asian Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in Asia

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