BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Automotive Sector Of Colombia

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Q406 Colombia Automobiles Report shows an industry that continues to go from strength to strength. During 2006, the sector has enjoyed bumper sales on the back of a healthy economy and strong consumer demand. Industry majors such as General Motors have identified Colombia's potential as a strong production hub and moved to step up activities in the country. The sharp upswing in sales figures led BMI to raise its 2006 forecast to 180,000 units in the last quarter. We reiterate this figure for the final phase of the year, and maintain our production forecast of 40,211 units.

Colombia's car industry hit something of a milestone in October when sales surpassed the 20,000 unit-mark for the first time ever. Sales for the month totalled 21,407 units, thanks to the motor show that took place in the capital Bogotá. According to industry sources, the motor show enjoyed record levels of attendance, while some 7,000 deals were wrapped up. In fact, Bogotá's motor show goes some way to explaining why we have restated our forecast for the remainder of 2006. Given the widely held view that the motor show was behind the strong upturn reported in October, we expect to see sales fall off during the remainder of the year, with the figures for October representing an albeit welcome blip. According to data from the analysis group Econometría, car sales in October were 7.8% higher than in September. General Motors topped the list of best sellers with its Chevrolet model, selling 7,859 units. The US giant was followed by Renault (3,597 units), Hyundai (2,402 units), Mazda (1,152 units) and Toyota (984 units). Subaru reported a huge month-on-month increase of 166%.

BMI believes the health of the Colombian market and growing consumer confidence may be seen in the country's fledgling premium brand market. In line with industry data, more and more Colombians are opting to buy luxury vehicles. For example, in the period January-August Toyota reported a 329% increase in demand for its Rav4 vehicles, while sales of its 4Runner rose by 13%. The growth of this market is attributed to better credit facilities and favourable interest rates.

Colombia continues to take second place on BMI's Business Environment Rankings. The year's robust sales figures are indicative of a ravenous market, in which vehicle ownership has so far been below the regional average. In line with BMI research, Colombia is now seen as one of the more reliable destinations for foreign investment.

In terms of industry developments, General Motors and Renault, which dominate the Colombian market in terms of production, have decided to join forces under an alliance named the 'Competitiveness Management Model' (CMM). The carmakers have concluded a co-operation agreement, valued at some US$8mn, under which they will bring together the best management practices of both companies, and share equipment suppliers.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Colombia Auto Industry SWOT

Colombia Economic SWOT

Colombia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Latin America Regional Overview

Table: Latin America Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Table: Latin America Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: Colombia Autos Sector – Production And Sales Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Trade

Table: Colombia Autos Sector Exports & Imports – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Colombia Autos Sector Economic Contribution – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Colombia – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

LATIN AMERICA: Automotive Focus Report On Premium Cars

Regional Overview

Table: Competitive Landscape: Regional Comparison

Table: Prospects For Growth In Latin America’s Premium Car Markets

Country Landscape: Colombia

Market Size & Opportunities for Growth

Customer Profile

Key Players

SWOT of Colombian premium car market

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Table: Colombia: Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecast By Vehicle Type, 2005-2010

Table: Colombia: Commercial Vehicle Production Forecast By Vehicle Type, 2005-2010

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Colombia Vehicle Sales Jan-Nov 2005

Industry developments

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

GM Regional Overview

General Motors Regional Car Sales

Table: General Motors Regional Production

General Motors Regional SWOT

Company Profiles

Colmotores (GM)

Sofasa

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Latin American Automotive Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Latin American Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in Latin America

[TOP]