BMI's Executive Summary

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During the first 10 months of 2007 new car sales rose by 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 110,829 units, running ahead of our original full-year forecast of 118,664 units. In BMI's view, strong economic growth and household consumption have fuelled the upturn in new car sales and our outlook over the forecast period up to 2012 is increasingly optimistic.

According to data from the Czech automotive industry association, AIA, Skoda continued to lead the new car market during the first 10 months of the year. The carmaker did see its sales fall, however, by 6.0% yo- y to 40,506 units. Ford continued its run as one of the best performing brands during the year to October, with sales soaring by 64.1% against the prior-year period to 7,182 units. Other positive results among players ranked in the top 10 were reported by Kia, whose sales rose by a significant 65.0% y-o-y to 3,620 units and Opel, up by 39.8% y-o-y to 3,632 units. The other top 10 players reporting a downturn in sales for the period in addition to Skoda were Renault and Volkswagen (VW), which registered falls of 6.6% and 4.5%, respectively.

Sales of light commercial vehicles rose by 22.0% y-o-y to 47,893 units during the period January-October 2007 in line with our expectations that a significant amount of growth in the new vehicle market over the forecast period will take place in LCV sales. Skoda led the market once again, enjoying a 25.5% y-o-y increase to 11,606 units. VW's sales rose by 7.5% y-o-y to 5,170 units, while Ford saw its LCV sales rise by 6.1% to 4,822 units. BMI's revised forecast for new car sales in 2007 stands at 130,000 units. We expect sales to dip in 2008 in line with an ongoing tightening in the labour market that may squeeze nominal wages and consumer spending.

With respect to exports, data from the AIA show that during the period January-September 2007 exports of new cars and LCVs rose by a firm 11.0% y-o-y to 650,049 units. The increase comes on the back of a rise in production of these items, of 7.7% to 679,378 units. Market leader Skoda has faced increasing demand for its vehicles this year with 90% of the carmaker's output in the Czech Republic being sold outside the country. BMI has raised its 2007 forecast for exports to 800,000 units.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Czech Republic Auto Industry SWOT

Czech Republic Economic SWOT

Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production by Group, H1 2006

Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise in Central and Eastern European Production and Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU and EFTA Autos Sales by Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 and EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models in Europe, Jan-May 2006

Suppliers

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European car prices

Table: Price of Europe’s five top-selling models by market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Czech Republic Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company ranking of significant regional manufacturers

Table: Recent and Planned Investments in Central and Eastern Europe

Czech Republic Commercial Vehicle Market Overview

Table: Czech Republic: Commercial Vehicle Production and Sales Trends for Czech Brands, Change y-o-y, 2005 (CBUs)

Sales

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players – LCV New Registrations, 2005

Table: Czech Republic: Top Eight Key Players – HCV New Registrations, 2005

Table: Czech Republic Top Five Key Players – Bus Registrations, 2005

Table: Size of Commercial Vehicle Market

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Czech Republic

Production

Table: Production in Czech Republic

Table: Production Forecasts for Czech Republic

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Skoda Q1 Sales (CBUs)

Suppliers

Table: Investment by Japanese automotive parts manufacturers in the Czech Republic

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia sales in Europe (EU and EFTA), by model

Production

Table: Kia production in Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), by model

Company Profiles

Skoda

Peugeot

Toyota

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: