BMI's Executive Summary

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Private consumption and investment helped sustain Egypt's strong economic performance in 2007,with
automotive sales up 22% and GDP up 6.8%, according to BMI's latest Egypt Automotive Report.
Momentum remains in place for a very impressive growth performance throughout the forecast period,
with BMI forecasting sales rising 63.4% between 2007 and 2012.

Economic reforms and the growth effect are increasing wealth, with a greater variety of car loans and
rising employment translating into increased spending power. Domestic demand will remain the primary
driver of growth from the expenditure side, with middle-class household consumption on big-ticket items
such as cars set to rise further over the forecast period, helped by an expected reduction in interest rates.

Meanwhile, the investment picture in Egypt remains as buoyant as ever, with confidence still high, raising
hopes of increased foreign investment in the automotive industry. However, the appreciation of the
Egyptian pound and the relatively high cost of automotive production in Egypt will mean that output
growth will depend on domestic demand. Upward pressure on the pound is likely to be too strong for the
central bank to resist, and we see significant gains over the coming years. Fundamentals point
overwhelmingly to a bullish stance. This will be good news for European car manufacturers. Between Q3
2000 and Q3 2007, the Egyptian pound depreciated by 152% against the euro due to its quasi-peg against
the US dollar, which has pushed up the price of cars imported from the EU. BMI forecasts that the
macroeconomic fundamentals and planned capacity expansion will push up Egyptian automotive
production to 155,555 units by 2012, a 50% increase over 2007 levels. However, the ratio of vehicle sales
to vehicle production will decline from 1.2:1 in 2004 to 1.6:1 by 2010, indicating the declining
importance of Egyptian automotive producers to the domestic market.

BMI estimates that Egypt's auto trade deficit rose by a third in 2007, to US$2.06bn, due to the rapid
growth in demand. We expect an increase in exports over the forecast period, with a greater proportion of
domestic output sold abroad. At the same time, automotive imports are likely to accelerate, with the local
manufacturing sector unable to keep up with demand. Consequently, the automotive trade deficit is set to
exceed US$3.6bn by 2011.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Egypt Auto Industry SWOT

Egypt Economic SWOT

Egypt Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Middle East And Africa Overview

Table: Middle East And Africa Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Middle East And Africa Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Suppliers

Table: Africa Autos Sales 2005 By Segment

Table: Middle East Autos Sales 2005 By Segment

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Egypt Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Egypt Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Egypt: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent And Planned Investments In The Middle East And Africa

Table: Key Investments By Multinational Manufacturers – 2004-2005

Egypt Commercial Vehicles

Sales

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market By Segment: Egypt

Table: Bus Market By Segment: Egypt, 2005

Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Egypt

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Egypt

Production

Table: Production In Egypt

Table: Commercial Vehicle Producers: Egypt

Table: Production Forecasts For Egypt

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Manufacturers – Passenger Cars

Suppliers

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Ford

Sales

Table: Ford Dealers In Middle East And Africa

Production

Table: Ford Assembly Plants In The Middle East And Africa

Company Profiles

General Motors Egypt

Manufacturing Commercial Vehicles (MCV)

Toyota

Nissan

Ford

BMW

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern & African Automotive Sources

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BMI's Middle East & Africa Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in the Middle East and Africa

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