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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] The Estonian automotive market is set for a slowdown in 2008 as consumers become more cautious about making high value purchases amid tougher lending conditions and the market reaches saturation point. In 2007, automotive sales grew 26.0% y-o-y to 38,725 units, with passenger car sales up 25.8% and commercial vehicle sales up 27.0%. However, there were signs of a downturn in sales in Q407, with December seeing the first monthly year-on-year decline in sales in 2004. This coincided with a slowdown throughout the economy, with retail sales growth in decline. Car dealerships indicated that they expected the decline to continue into 2008, while others were more optimistic and predicted a soft landing in the car market. The consensus is that car sales growth is likely to be in the region of 10%. BMI is more pessimistic, forecasting sales growth of just 9.0% in 2008 with 34,782 cars sold. We expect the economic cycle to pick up in 2010, with a concurrent rise in car sales growth. By 2012, we expect car sales to reach just under 51,800 units, a still impressive 62.3% rise in sales over 2007 levels. The commercial vehicles segment is also witnessing a slowdown due to a combination of the overall downturn in the economy and the problems affecting road freight transportation between Russia and Estonia. BMI anticipates that Estonia's commercial vehicle market will rise by 40.8% between 2007 and 2012, which is well below the 56.8% growth expected for the Baltic region as a whole. Lower rates of growth are related to an anticipated slowdown in road freight movements caused by Russia's decision to severely restrict Estonian truck movements. BMI believes that some road haulage firms are likely to go out of business, although some consolidation is likely. Meanwhile, foreign investment in the parts sector should help the indigenous industry to continue to grow. We anticipate growth rates for this sector of between 10-15% per annum during the forecast period, in euro terms. Sales results from the Estonian seat belt manufacturer AS Norma in 2007 show that Russian sales remain buoyant. In H107, Norma's sales amounted to EEK595mn (EUR38mn), an increase of 12% y-o-y, with sales to Russian customers rising 55% y-o-y. Estonia's position as a low-cost automotive components manufacturer was further boosted in December 2007 when Stoneridge, a manufacturer of automotive electronics, announced plans to close its UK plant in Gloucestershire and move part of its electrical switches production to its Estonian subsidiary, Stoneridge Eesti. Toyota remains the most popular brand on the Baltic passenger car market, with a 13% market share and 11,100 vehicles sold in 2007. The second most popular was Volkswagen with 8,990 registered new cars (10%), followed by Honda with 7,300 sales (8%). Toyota has the market lead in all three Baltic states, but the strength of other brands varies from market to market with Mazda particularly strong in Estonia, for instance. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 – SWOT AnalysisEstonia Auto Industry SWOT Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market OverviewProduction Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Table: European Autos Production By Group, H1 2006 Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review) Table: The Rise In Central And Eastern European Production And Average Wages Sales Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006 Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006 Table: New Car Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005 Competitive Landscape Table: EU-15 And EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005 Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2006 Suppliers Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005 Regulation Baltic Market Overview Chapter 3 – Business Environment RankingsEconomics – Long-term Risk Politics – Long-term Risk CBU Output Growth Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential Regulation Competitive Environment Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast ScenarioTable: Estonia Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast ScenarioTable: GDP, Output & Population Country Snapshot: Estonia Demographic Data Section 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial VehiclesRegional Market Overview Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers Table: Recent And Planned Investments In Central And Eastern Europe Baltics Market Overview Table: Baltic Market, 2005 Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Estonia Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Latvia Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Lithuania Table: Baltic Market, Forecasts: 2010 Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Estonia Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Latvia Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Lithuania Chapter 7 – Competitive LandscapeTable: Estonia Passenger Car Sales 2004 Table: Estonia Commercial Vehicle Sales 2004 Chapter 8 – Company MonitorRegional Case Study: Kia Sales Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model Production Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model Company Profiles Toyota Inchcape (Mazda) AS Norma BMI Forecast Modelling Automobile Industry Sources Appendix: Regional Demographic Data Table: Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP Table: Population Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn |
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Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of
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* BMW * Fiat * Ford * General Motors * Goodyear * Hyundai * Michelin * Nissan * Opel |
* PSA Peugeot Citroen * Renault * Seat * Siemens * Skoda * Suzuki * Toyota * Volkswagen |
[TOP]
BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:
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