Indonesia Automotives Industry Forecast

The Indonesia Automotives Report

    • Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Indonesia.
    • Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Indonesia Automotive industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Indonesian Automotive company rankings and SWOT analysis on international and domestic Automotive companies in Indonesia.

The Indonesia Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International’s Indonesian Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian automotives market.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian Automotives market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Indonesian Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
    • Exploit the Latest Competitive Indonesian Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Indonesia.

 

Coverage

Executive Summary & Swot Analysis

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.

Regional Overview

Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.

Business Environment Rankings

Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides BMI’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.

Market Overview

Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.

BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.


BMI's Executive Summary

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Indonesia's automotive industry is well on track to achieve a recovery from its collapse of 2006. By October 2007, sales had risen by 37.3% y-o-y to 349,489 units for the 10 months combined. October's monthly sales grew by over 50%, signalling the 15th consecutive month of growth since Bank Indonesia (BI) began its rate cuts. Although the growth in sales is in line with BMI's expectations, we have been forced to once more revise our sales estimate for 2007 upwards to 414,539 units, a 20% improvement on 2006. For the remainder of our five-year forecast period, now extended to 2012, we would expect the positive growth to be sustained.

Production also looks set to receive a boost from potential major investments. Renault has approached the Indonesian investment authorities with plans for a potential US$600mn plant, which would become the carmaker's South East Asian production hub. General Motors (GM) is also considering Indonesia for a new plant for its Chevrolet models, while South Korea's Hyundai has invested in a commercial vehicles joint venture. Consequently, BMI expects the country's automotive production to top 500,000 units by 2010 rising to just short of 625,000 by 2012. Increased production activities will also give rise to the market's growing export industry, which we expect to account for over 30% of domestic automotive production by the end of the forecast period.

This buoyant outlook for Indonesia is reflected in BMI's Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region, where the market ranks joint second alongside highgrowth market India. High scores have been awarded for the country's CBU output growth potential, which has risen with our extended forecast, while the level of vehicle ownership is still relatively low, creating further opportunity for sales growth. Moreover, Indonesia is geographically well positioned to act as a regional base, while the industry is supportive of foreign investment. An ongoing risk remains, however, in the shape of terrorism threats.

Japanese manufacturers continue to dominate the competitive landscape. Toyota led the market in the year to October 2007, with a market share of 34.5% from sales of 120,552 units. In October, the company's sales rose by 38% to 11,310 units for a market share of 36.2%. Toyota was followed by Mitsubishi in second with a market share of 15% and Suzuki on 10.7%. If Renault's production base is finalised this could provide an opportunity for European brands to make more of a mark in Indonesia, while Geely and Chery have paved the way for Chinese brands.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Indonesia Auto Industry SWOT

Indonesia Economic SWOT

Indonesia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Indonesia Automotive Market Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Indonesia Automotive Market Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Indonesia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Indonesia – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

Table: Indonesia Commercial Vehicle Sales

Key Players In The Commercial Vehicle Sector

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Industry Developments

Passenger Segment

Table: Indonesia Vehicle Sales 2005

Two-Wheeled Segment

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

Toyota Astra Motor

Suzuki

Honda

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's Asian Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Automotives Reports

Asia Europe Middle East & Africa North & South America
UK
UAE
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Business Monitor International

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