BMI's Executive Summary

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Japan's new vehicle sales looked set to finish 2007 down on 2006. Sales of standard vehicles for the year to October 2007 fell 8.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2,900,833 units, as poor truck sales dragged on the industry, falling 17.7% for the 10-month period. Combined standard and mini vehicle sales of 4,397,779 units for the year to October support BMI's decision to lower its forecast for the full year to 5.35mn units. BMI's sales forecast has been revised to reflect a 6.8% decline in overall sales in 2007 with a gradual recovery over the five-year forecast period, now extended to 2012.

There is some positive news for the industry, as sales of standard vehicles registered the first month of growth for 28 months in October 2007, when sales rose by 2% y-o-y. BMI is cautious about basing any projections on this upturn, however, as a number of new vehicle launches prior to the Tokyo Motor Show have been credited with the surge in sales. Some manufacturers remain confident in the industry's potential, however, as Mitsubishi announced plans in October to raise the capacity of its domestic plants to meet its sales targets for the financial year ending March 2008.

Despite such attempts at expansion, Japan retains its 14th place in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region. Although the economy is stable and BMI expects GDP growth to climb marginally in 2008, there is political unrest, which could lead to elections and add to uncertainty. Added to this is the saturated nature of the automotive market, which restricts sales growth potential. On the upside, the production industry can still benefit from exports, which rose by over 9% in the first nine months of 2007, while Japan scores above average for its regulatory environment as one of the more developed markets in the region.

The saturation of the market is evident in the competitive landscape, which shows most domestic manufacturers posting a fall in sales for the first 10 months of the year. Toyota continues to lead the market, although sales of the Toyota brand fell by 7.4% y-o-y for the 10 months, despite climbing by 7.9% in October. Nissan and Honda, which complete the top three, registered falling sales for both the month of October and the year to date. Sales fell by 0.1% and 6.3% respectively in October and 11% and 7.7% for the 10 months to October. Mitsubishi, in fifth place was the only domestic manufacturer to see sales rise for both the month and the year to date, with growth of 17.2% and 3.5% respectively, and will be looking to build on this with the expansion aimed at meeting sales targets.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Japan Auto Industry SWOT

Japan Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Japan Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Japan Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Japan Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Japan – Macroeconomic Forecasts

Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Sales

Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Market Production (2000-2005)

Key Players

Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Market By Brand 2005

Investment

Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Investment

Forecast

Table: Japan Commercial Vehicle Sales (2006-2010)

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Table: Japan Vehicle Production (CBUs)

Table: Japan Vehicle Sales (CBUs)

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

Toyota

Nissan

Honda

Mitsubishi

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population .

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's Asian Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: