BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The Lithuanian car market is expected to continue to surge over the next five years, although in common with other Baltic states, growth is expected to moderate.

Despite its small size, Lithuania is one of Europe's fastest growing automotive markets. Automotive sales growth remained robust throughout 2007 with only a seasonal dip in Q3. In 2007, new vehicle registrations in Lithuania grew 46.3% to over 31,800 units, with car sales up 56.3% and commercial vehicle sales up 28.2%. The truck segment saw the strongest growth, with sales up by an estimated 68.6% y-o-y. Mercedes Benz was the leader with a 20.6% market share, followed by Volvo (20.0%) and DAF (13.9%). Higher interest rates and supply-side constraints should have a dampening effect on activity over the next year or so. But the economic outlook is somewhat uncertain and the government may yet pay a high price for not implementing demand-restraining measures. The longer the demand boom continues, the more likely the Lithuanian economy will face a hard landing with negative consequences for the automotive market. Nevertheless, consumer demand will continue to be supported in the near term by favourable labour market conditions.

The growth in commercial vehicle sales in 2007 was surprising, given the gloom hanging over the Lithuanian transport sector. According to local media reports, a lack of orders and growing losses in the road haulage sector is leading many firms to close or cut back their operations. The number of transport companies is expected to fall by 10% between 2007 and 2009. However, BMI expects that this may be the result of consolidation within the sector rather than a net reduction in the national truck fleet. Vehicle registration figures also show a marked slowdown in light commercial vehicles, suggesting that firms carrying low tonnage freight could be hardest hit; in 2007, LCV sales rose by just 3.6%, well below the prevailing trends in the automotive market.

The main risk factor to the parts industry comes from the emergence of St Petersburg in Russia as a major car production hub. This could lead to an increase in parts exports to Russia, or it could lead parts manufacturers to move their operations from the Baltic States to Russia to cut costs and integrate fully with assembly plants. Nevertheless, Baltic States have an advantage in that their membership of the EU and their proximity to Russia makes them an ideal manufacturing hub for supplying the region's autos plants.

In 2007, Europe's third-largest automotive dealer by sales, the UK-based Inchcape, made significant inroads into the Lithuanian automotive market, buying up a number of local dealerships. It made a combined investment of around LTL67mn buying up Autovista, Vilniaus Vista, Vytaras and Autovytaras, which represent Ford, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Hyundai in Lithuania and had a combined 20% share of the new car market in 2007. This was in addition to Inchcape's acquisitions in Latvia, which

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Lithuania Auto Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production by Group, H1 2006

Table: Central and Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise in Central and Eastern European Production and Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 And EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2000

Suppliers.

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European car prices

Table: Price Of Europe’s Five Top-Selling Models By Market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Lithuania Historical Data & Forecasts

Special Report: Impact of Oil Price Rises on the Automotive Sector

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Indicators Of Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Lithuania Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent And Planned Investments In Central And Eastern Europe

Baltics Market Overview

Table: Baltic Market, 2005

Table: Size of Commercial Vehicle Market: Estonia

Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Latvia

Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market: Lithuania

Table: Baltic Market, Forecasts: 2010

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Estonia

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Latvia

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast: Lithuania

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Suppliers

Table: Component Industry – Market Share (%), By Segment

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model

Production

Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model

Company Profiles

Ford/Mazda

SY Wiring Technologies

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

[TOP]

BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: