BMI's Executive Summary

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Strong new vehicle sales in the first four months of FY2007/08 (ending June 2008) have prompted BMI to raise its sales forecast for the year. BMI has raised its passenger car sales forecast for FY2007/08 and the rest of the forecast period, with sales growth of 3%, while we retain our forecast of overall vehicle sales growth of just over 4%. Car sales of 57,167 units for the first four months of FY2007/08 (August to October) support this forecast. Production strength in the four-month period, however, has led to an upwards revision of our production forecast for the current financial year to overall growth of 6.25%, largely based on an increase in our projection for passenger car production growth to 10% y-o-y.

The commercial vehicle segment could feature in the industry's overall production growth, if a proposed joint venture between China's Dong Feng Automobile Company and Pakistan Automobile Company (PACO) comes to fruition. Pakistan's Federal Minister for Industries, Jahangir Khan Tareen has given his blessing to the project, stating that it fits with the government's policy of encouraging investment. Fuelling the government's efforts to make the industry globally competitive is a recent contract in excess of US$1mn, awarded to Pakistan components maker Transmission Motor Company (TMC) to supply components to a division of Chrysler. Global Electric Motorcars (GEM) produces electric vehicles for global sale and has formed a long-term partnership with TMC, which could eventually lead to the assembly of electric cars in Pakistan.

As an investment destination, Pakistan ranks joint fourth in BMI's Business Environment Rankings for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region. The low level of vehicle ownership suggests that there is scope for further sales growth, while a reasonably low number of incumbent producers means that the market is not yet saturated in terms of supply. However, the risk of inflation on the back of strong economic growth and political unrest drag on Pakistan's overall score, while its CBU output potential is also lower than its regional peers for our forecast period to 2012.

Japanese car manufacturers control most of Pakistan's passenger car production and sales. Figures for FY2006/07 show that Suzuki models represented 58.8% of total Pakistani passenger car production and 57.1% of sales; in the first four months of FY2007/08 (Jul 07-Oct 07), Suzuki represented 61% of production and 61% of sales. However, the Toyota Corolla took over in the first four months of FY07/08 as Pakistan's most popular model with 21.3% of sales, followed by FY2006/07's most popular model the Suzuki Mehran, with 20.8% of sales. Honda is Pakistan's third-largest car producer and has a 9% market share.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Pakistan Auto Industry SWOT

Pakistan Economic SWOT

Pakistan Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Regional Market Overview

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Asia Pacific Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Ranking

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Economic Climate

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: GDP And Population

Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Country Landscape

External Automotive Trade

Table: Imports of CKD and CBU vehicles of all types (volume in ‘000 and value in US$)

Recent CV Market Trends

Table: Pakistan Evolution of CV market shares, 2000-2005 (CBUs)

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Passenger Cars

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector – Production and Sales of Passenger Cars, by Make and Model (CBUs)

Motorcycles

Table: Pakistan Automotive Sector – Production and Sales of Motorcycles, by Make and Model (CBUs)

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

General Motors Asia Pacific Regional Overview

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Production 2005 (CBUs)

Table: GM Asia Vehicle Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Profiles

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave. per annum), US$

Table - Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Asian Automotive Sources

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BMI's Asian Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in Asia

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