BMI's Executive Summary

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Developments in Poland's automotive industry during H207 reflect the country's increasing importance in
the strategies of some of the world's leading vehicle makers. As illustrated in BMI's latest Poland
Automotives Report, new car sales continued to rise during the first 10 months of 2007 despite the higher
level of used car imports on the market. Moreover, vehicle production has received a boost in line with
plans unveiled by industry heavyweights such as BMW and General Motors (GM).

According to data from Poland's Automotive Research Institute, SAMAR, in October 2007 new car sales
hit a record 24,666 units, an increase of 8.4% on the previous month and up by 18.2% against the same
month a year earlier. During the first 10 months of the year, new car sales totalled 242,058 units, up by
23.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). Market leader Toyota enjoyed a 22.8% increase in sales to 29,426 units. The
Japanese carmaker was followed by Skoda, which sold 26,364 units, up by 13.3% y-o-y, and Fiat, whose
sales rose by 15.2% against the prior-year period to 23,307 units. Strong economic growth and greater
household wealth have fuelled new car sales in 2007, and BMI expects passenger car sales to reach
264,911 units for the year as a whole.

In BMI's view Poland's true strength as an attractive base for carmakers lies in its potential for output
growth, which is in keeping with the country's score on our Business Environment Ranking. In H207
GM unveiled plans to make 240,000 units of its new generation Astra compact vehicle at its plant in
Gliwice, southern Poland, from 2010. The plans are in line with a shake-up of GM's operations in Europe,
which also involve production of the older Astra model being gradually phased out at its plant in
Antwerp, Belgium, before being halted completely in 2010. The production level set for the Gliwice
facility for the Astra model is reportedly the same as output at GM's plant in Bochum, Germany,
reflecting the threat production bases in Western Europe face from cheaper Eastern European countries
such as Poland. Indeed, GM is bidding to cut costs by around 30% on the next generation Astra.

In terms of fresh investment, BMW has earmarked investment of PLN30mn (EUR8.09mn) to set up a
spare parts centre in Slubice, near the Polish-German border. The facility will be used by BMW to supply
its dealerships in Poland and across Eastern Europe.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Poland Auto Industry SWOT

Poland Economic SWOT

Poland Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production By Group, H1 2006

Table: Central & Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise In Central & Eastern European Production And Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 And EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2000

Suppliers

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European Car Prices

Table: Price Of Europe’s Five Top-Selling Models By Market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Poland Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Poland Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Poland Autos Sector – Used Cars Imports (CBUs), 2005

Economic Contribution

Table: Poland Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Job Creation In The Polish Automotive Supply Industry

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Poland – Economic Activity

Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent and planned investments in Central and Eastern Europe

Poland Commercial Vehicle Market Overview

Sales

Table: Polish Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs), Top 10 brands, 2005

Table: Polish Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs), Segment By Weight, 2005*

Table: Polish Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs), Top Eight Brands, 2005*

Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market

Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecast

Production

Table: Poland Light Commercial Vehicle Production

Table: Production In Poland

Table: Production Forecasts For Poland

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Overview

Regulations and Taxation

Industry Trends

Table: Poland Commercial Vehicle Production

Table: Poland Passenger Car Production

Table: Polish New Car Sales (CBUs)

Table: Poland New Passenger Car Sales

Table: Polish New Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs)

Table: Poland New Commercial Vehicle Sales.

Table: Polish Used Car Imports, Jan-May 2006, Top 10 Brands

Suppliers

Table: Faurecia’s Operations In Poland

Table: Foreign Investment In The Polish Automotive Parts Industry, End-2005

Table: Foreign Investment In The Polish Automotive Parts Industry, End-2005 (continued)

Table: Foreign Investment In The Polish Automotive Parts Industry, End-2005 (continued)

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model

Production

Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model

Company Profiles

Fiat

Skoda

Renault

Toyota

Opel

Intrall

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: