BMI's Executive Summary

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New car sales picked up in Slovakia after a sluggish start to 2007. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, ACEA, in October 2007 Slovak new car registrations totalled 5,715 units, an increase of 12.4% on the same month a year earlier. During the first 10 months of the year new car sales edged up by 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 49,194 units. The upturn was nevertheless the least reported for the period among new member states to the European Union (EU). Plenty of scope for growth remains in the market, particularly with respect to production.

Skoda continues to lead the new car market, despite a significant fall in sales and mounting competition from rivals. In line with data from the Automotive Industry Association of the Slovak Republic, AIA, during the period January-October 2007 Skoda's new car sales plummeted by 22.2% y-o-y to 10,668 units. Skoda's parent company Volkswagen (VW) reported a similar decline of 21.2% y-o-y to 2,968 units. Other significant results among the top five players include a 52.0% y-o-y increase for secondranked Suzuki to 3,900 units. Kia, meanwhile, enjoyed a massive increase of 176.1% y-o-y to 2,584 units, while Citroën also saw its sales rise by a solid 32.8% to 3,072 units.

Growth in Slovakia's light commercial vehicle (LCV) market was more pronounced during the January- October period. According to data from AIA, LCV sales rose by 21.3% y-o-y to 18,298 units. All of the top 10 players reported an increase in sales, except for Hyundai, whose sales for the period fell by 9.7% y-o-y to 654 units. Skoda led the LCV market, with sales of 3,934 units, a firm increase of 15.3% against the same period a year earlier. Of the top five players, Citroën and Peugeot enjoyed significant increases, of 23.9% and 23.5%, respectively. With respect to the rest of the top 10, Renault saw its sales soar by 65.5% y-o-y to 1,044 units, while Kia booked a massive increase of 112.5% y-o-y to 901 units.

Slovakia's importance as a production hub in the automotive industry was highlighted this quarter by developments relating to Kia and VW. Kia has announced that it will be stepping up production of its Cee'd vehicle by 25% as from 2008 on the back of strong demand for the model. The decision is in line with the company's strategy of boosting its position on the European market. BMI is forecasting output of 760,000 units for 2007, rising to 843,600 units in 2008. Our forecast for 2008 is likely to change at a later date, should Kia go ahead with its plans to raise production.

VW, for its part, has decided to manufacture the popular Skoda Octavia at its plant in Bratislava as from Q108. The Octavia will replace production of VW's Polo model, which will be transferred to two destinations in Western Europe. The move reflects how production plants in Eastern Europe may complement facilities in the West as well as enhance cost-efficiency for carmakers.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Slovakia Auto Industry SWOT

Slovakia Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production By Group, H1 2006

Table: Central And Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise In Central And Eastern European Production And Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 and EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2006

Suppliers

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European Car Prices

Table: Price Of Europe’s Five Top-Selling Models By Market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: Slovakia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Trade

Table: Slovakia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Slovakia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Growth & Output

Country Snapshot: Slovakia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country ranking

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent And Planned Investments In Central And Eastern Europe

Slovakia Market Overview

Production

Table: Commercial Vehicle Production In Slovakia

Sales

Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales In Slovakia

Table: Slovakia Light Commercial Vehicle Sales, Top 10 Brands 2005

Table: Slovakia Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales, Top 10 Brands 2005

Table: Slovakia Bus Sales, Top Five Brands 2005

Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecasts For Slovakia

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Slovakia Passenger Car Sales 2005 (CBUs)

Manufacturers – Passenger Cars

Suppliers

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model

Production

Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model

Company Profiles

Volkswagen

PSA Peugeot Citroën

Hyundai

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: