BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Automotive Sector Of Slovenia

Slovenia's automotive industry is facing capacity constraints while its car market is now at saturation levels, according to BMI's latest Slovenia Autos Report. Renault continues to dominate both output and sales. However, output at its local Revoz subsidiary fell by 11.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2006. Slovenia's vehicle sales fell 3.9% y-o-y in the first 10 months of 2006. The decline in automotive sales in Slovenia is a continuation of the downturn seen in 2005, when sales fell 3.9% to 67,856 units. This is due to a number of factors, including high car ownership rates of around 40% of the population, and imports of used cars following Slovenia's accession to the EU. This is despite a pick-up in economic activity, with BMI forecasting growth of 4.8% in 2006, up from 4.0% in 2005. While other markets are well placed for a boom in domestic car sales, the already largely saturated car ownership ratio will act as a key constraint in Slovenia.

Renault's sales fell 3.3% in the first three-quarters of 2006, but Renault retained its market share of 22.2%, more than twice the level of its nearest competitors, Volkswagen (VW)(11.1%) and Opel (10.1%). Renault has maintained its market lead due to the popularity of the locally manufactured Clio, which represented 47.3% of its sales and 10.5% of total market sales. Clio sales rose 5.0% y-o-y in the first three quarters of 2006, compared to an overall market decline of 4.5% in the period. The Fiat Punto and Renault Scenic saw large rises in sales in the period, while sales of the Renault Megane fell 13.5% y-o-y.

The decline in Revoz output in the first eight months of 2006 has prompted BMI to re-evaluate its production forecasts. In the Q306 report, we forecast year-end output at 172,000 units, a fall of 3.4% y-o-y. However, we now forecast a 15% fall in output to 151,253 units, based on trends in the year-to-date. We expect output in 2010 to be about the same as the level achieved in 2005 at just under 178,600 units. Output growth will be spurred on by the introduction of the new generation Twingo model at the plant in 2007. The success of the new Twingo on the European markets will largely determine the strength of car manufacturing output in Slovenia.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Slovenia Autos SWOT

Slovenia Economic SWOT

Slovenia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market Overview

Production

Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: European Autos Production by Group, H1 2006

Table: Central & Eastern European Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review)

Table: The Rise In Central & Eastern European Production And Average Wages

Sales

Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: EU & EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006

Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006

Table: New Car Registrations by Market in Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005

Competitive Landscape

Table: EU-15 and EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005

Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2000

Suppliers

Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005

Regulation

European Car Prices

Table: Price of Europe’s Five Top-Selling Models By Market

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Table: Central and Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Slovenia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Revoz Production By Month

Trade

Table: Slovenia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Economic Contribution

Table: Slovenia Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: GDP, Output And Population

Country Snapshot: Slovenia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country ranking

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent and Planned Investments in Central and Eastern Europe

Slovenia Market Overview

Sales

Table: Size of Slovenian Commercial Vehicle Market

Table: Commercial Vehicles Sales Forecasts For Slovenia

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Top Five Models On The Slovenian Market: May 2006 (CBUs, unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Kia

Sales

Table: Kia sales in Europe (EU and EFTA), by model

Production

Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model

Company Profiles

Revoz (Renault)

Sava Tires

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

[TOP]

BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: