BMI's Executive Summary

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BMI has lowered its estimate for passenger car sales in Spain in 2007. New car sales have fallen in the second half of the year as sales of the usually popular small cars tumbled. By contrast, we have raised our forecast for passenger car production to better reflect the pace of growth in output and exports in the year. According to data from the Spanish vehicle manufacturers' association, Anfac, in November 2007 new car registrations fell sharply by 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 125,199 units. The downturn cancelled out the positive gain made the previous month and was the third biggest fall in 2007. During the period January-November, new car sales totalled 1,470,405 units, down by 1.9% on the same period a year earlier. The fall in sales in H207 has been attributed to the increasing cost of living (basic goods) and increases in mortgage payments.

BMI's revised forecast for the year stands at 1.6mn units. We have also adjusted our forecast up to 2012 accordingly, taking into consideration a gradual slowdown in economic growth and the potential threat problems in the country's housing market pose to economic growth and subsequently to consumer spending.

BMI has raised its forecast for passenger car production in 2007 given the level of growth recorded during the 10-month period to October 2007. According to data from Anfac, output of passenger cars rose by a solid 9.16% y-o-y during the period to 1,884,438 units. Our revised forecast for this item stands at 2.26mn units.

Indeed, Spanish automotive production received a boost in H207 with the news that Volkswagen (VW) will be transferring production of its Polo passenger cars from Bratislava, Slovakia to locations in Spain and Brussels. VW's Spanish plant in Pamplona has been selected given the symmetries with the Polo vehicle and the models the plant already produces. The transfer is expected to take place in early 2008. Output at the Pamplona facility is set to increase by 11.5% next year as a result of gaining production of the Polo model.

Other industry developments in H207 include the news that Spanish car parts maker CIE Automotive has acquired Lithuanian car parts maker UAB Peer from the US company Illinois Peer Industries for EUR4.7mn. The move forms part of CIE's strategy to grow in Eastern Europe where it is seeking to boost its business in key countries whose automotive industries are experiencing rapid growth.

Contents

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Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Chapter 2 – Market Overview

Regulatory Environment/Developments

Industry Developments

Table: Spain Vehicle Production (CBUs)

Chapter 3 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Historical Data & Forecasts, Automobile Industry (CBUs Unless Otherwise Stated)

Chapter 4 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Spain – Macroeconomic Forecasts

Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Chapter 5 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Spain’s Top 10 Best Selling Brands

New Projects

Suppliers

Chapter 6 – Company Monitor

Profiles

Volkswagen-SEAT

Renault

PSA Peugeot Citroën

BMI Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of  
Companies Ranked

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Rankings and Competitive Landscapes by production and sales; market share and change on previous year; number of employees, ownership structure and year established. Also includes analysis of company expansion, export and investment strategies.

Network of Automotive Sources

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BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: