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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] Ukraine's automotive sales and output are set to continue their upward trend over the next five years, supported by rising wages and strong investment. In the first three quarters of 2007, Ukraine's car sales totalled 366,000 units, which was in line with BMI expectations. Monthly year-on-year (y-o-y) sales growth ran at over 25% throughout 2007. BMI estimates growth at around 28.3% for the whole year, with total sales worth US$13.88bn. Car sales growth is estimated at 30%, while commercial vehicle sales growth is estimated at 9.9%. In H107, the total value of the Ukrainian car market was EUR3bn, according to Auto Consulting Ukraine. Toyota had the largest share of the Ukrainian car market in terms of value, with a 10.9% share of sales (EUR330mn), followed by Russia's AvtoVAZ (9.9%, EUR300mn), Daewoo (9.3%, EUR280m), Mitsubishi (8.7%, EUR262mn) and Chevrolet (6.3%, EUR190mn). However, in terms of the number of cars sold, AvtoVAZ was the most popular brand. BMI broadly agrees with the trends forecast by UkrAvto's Vice President Vyacheslav Povroznik in September 2007. He predicted automotive sales of 500,000 units by the end of 2007, rising to 600,000 units in 2008 and 1mn units 'in the long-term'. Growth will be fuelled by the increase in numbers of people able to afford a car and the replacement of the national car stock, currently estimated at 4mn units. While BMI's forecast for 2008 is slightly above Povroznik's estimates, we do not envisage sales reaching 1mn units within the next five years. We believe that sales are likely to reach just over 838,000 units by 2012, with the Ukrainian market likely to be worth around US$22.3bn in 2007 prices. The high rate of domestic sales and strong inward investment coupled with the depreciation of the hryvnia, which has made Ukrainian manufacturers more competitive on European markets, helped boost automotive manufacturing in 2007. In the first three quarters of 2007, by Zaporizhzhia Automobile Building Plant (AvtoZAZ) and Kremenchuk Auto Assembly Plant (AvtoKrASZ), LuAZ and Eurocar reported year-on-year car production output growth rates of 48.6%, 43.1%, 14.4% and 45% respectively. Car output figures in the first three quarters of 2007 confirm BMI's estimate of 385,000 units for the year, raising total automotive output by 38.7% to 409,460 units. BMI believes automotive production will exceed 700,000 units by 2012, an increase of over 80% compared to estimates for 2007. Ukraine is establishing itself as a manufacturing hub, exporting to other markets in the CIS. This quarter, BMI examines the Ukrainian 'grey market', which represents nearly 18% of total new car sales in Ukraine and affects the profitability of dealerships. Loopholes in import duties have enabled cars to be imported in 'incomplete' form, thereby incurring lower levels of duty, with final modifications to the cars made ahead of sale. BMI research finds that the 'grey market' is fuelled by a shortage of popular models in the formal sector, but varies according to region and brand. But the root cause is a lack of regulatory enforcement, which is partly related to corruption. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 – SWOT AnalysisUkraine Auto Industry SWOT Ukraine Economic SWOT Chapter 2 – Europe Regional Market OverviewProduction Table: European Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Table: European Autos Production By Group, H1 2006 Table: CEE Car Assembly Plants, 2006 (Countries under review) Table: The Rise In CEE Production And Average Wages Sales Table: Europe Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Table: EU And EFTA Autos Sales By Group, H1 2006 Table: New Vehicle Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2006 Table: New Car Registrations By Market In Europe (EU and EFTA), 2005 Competitive Landscape Table: EU-15 And EFTA, Car Registrations, 2005 Table: Top 10 Best Selling Models In Europe, Jan-May 2006 Suppliers Table: Top Five OEM Parts Suppliers, 2005 Regulation Chapter 3 – Business Environment RankingsTable: CEE Business Environment Rankings Economics – Long-Term Risk Politics – Long-Term Risk CBU Output Growth Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential Regulation Competitive Environment Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast ScenarioProduction And Sales Table: Ukraine Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecast Economic Contribution Table: Ukraine Autos Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated) Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast ScenarioTable: Growth And Output Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data Section 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption And Stratification Table: Wages Per Year Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial VehiclesRegional Overview Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers Table: Recent And Planned Investments In CEE Ukraine Market Overview Sales Table: Top 10 brands, Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2004 Table: Size Of Commercial Vehicle Market Table: Sales Forecasts For Ukraine Production Table: Production In Ukraine Table: Production In Ukraine Table: Production Forecasts For Ukraine Chapter 7 – Competitive LandscapeMarket Overview Regulatory Developments Chapter 8 – Company MonitorRegional Case Study: Kia Sales Table: Kia Sales In Europe (EU and EFTA), By Model Production Table: Kia Production In Europe (EU, EFTA, Romania and Turkey), By Model Company Profiles VAZ AvtoZAZ Eurocar AvtoKrAZ BMI Forecast Modelling Automobile Industry Sources Appendix: Regional Demographic Data Table: Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP Table: Population Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn |
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Competitive Landscape for European Automotives: Sample of
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* BMW * Fiat * Ford * General Motors * Goodyear * Hyundai * Michelin * Nissan * Opel |
* PSA Peugeot Citroen * Renault * Seat * Siemens * Skoda * Suzuki * Toyota * Volkswagen |
[TOP]
BMI's European Automotives Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, automotive industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:
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