Our comprehensive assessment of Belize's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Belize, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Belize's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Belize before your competitors.
Belize Country Risk
Belize Industry Coverage (5)
BMI View: The Central America region continues to struggle with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector, which decimated the 2013 crop. We believe that coffee production will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards. Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We expect Central America to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has potential to attract investment over the medium term.
|Honduras Agribusiness To Outperform|
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BMI View: We currently forecast an average of 3.43.3% real growth in Central America's construction industry value for 20145 (excluding Panama) which is considerably higher than our regional average estimate for 2014 at 0.2% (excluding Panama). We expect Nicaragua's construction industry to return to positive in 2015 while Panama's will contract, as the completion of the Canal expansion nears its end.
We see high risks, small scale and limited growth opportunities across the region as a whole. A crucial factor underpinning our forecasts for infrastructure investments in future years is political and security risk. This is a particular concern in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala where high levels of crime, homicide, violence, and insecurity exacerbate operational risks for companies willing to invest in those countries. As such, we believe that local and regional...
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Belize Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: A growing ageing population, favourable tax incentives and high demand for medicines confirm Central America's ability to continue offering revenue-generating opportunities to foreign drugmakers. However, the region's growing preference for traditional medicines could interfere with productive sales in coming years.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD3.7bn in 2014 to USD3.9bn in 2015; +5.6%. Our forecast has been revised upwards since Q115 due to historical data.
Healthcare: USD16.8bn in 2014 to USD17.8bn in 2015; +5.7 %. Our forecast has been revised upwards since Q115 due to revised historical data.
BMI View: Although the rise in number portability, with four out of eight countries having implemented or in the process of implementing a form of number porting, should encourage an increase in competition, BMI believes that it would be challenging for newcomers like Xinwei to penetrate the market. Mobile forecasts show much slower growth across the board, with only Nicaragua offering any real growth potential. Increasing government interference, as is the case of Guatemala, is a worrying new development.
BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase in 2015 and 2016. However, growth is expected to remain below pre-2007 levels, with regional arrivals now increasing at an average of about 3% annually. Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.
Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...