Our comprehensive assessment of Bermuda's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Bermuda, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Bermuda's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Bermuda before your competitors.
Bermuda Country Risk
We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.
We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.
We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports.Â
Major Forecast Changes:
Bermuda Industry Coverage (2)
BMI View : W e expect the non-life segment to outperfor m the life segment over the 2015-2018 period as Bermuda retains its status as a preferred market for reinsuring risks in the non-life space. The glut of alternative capital in the market will continue to exert downward pressure on reinsurance rates and will result in smaller players being forced to consolidate.
We believe that growth in life reinsurance premiums will recover in developed markets in 2015. In particular, we anticipate gross life premiums in the US, a market which is the primary source of Bermuda reinsurance business, to grow by 2.0% in 2015.
We note that there is no appetite for reinsurance of long-term premiums ceded to Bermuda, resulting in the net premiums of long-term insurers remaining the same as their gross premiums. This is...
BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase in 2015 and 2016. However, growth is expected to remain below pre-2007 levels , with regional arrivals now increasing at an average of about 3% annually . Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.
Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...