Bulgaria Business Forecast Report

Published: February 4 2010 Quarterly   

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The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Bulgaria.

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Report Description

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Bulgarian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bulgaria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Bulgaria's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2014, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Bulgaria's economic and industry growth through end-2014
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Bulgaria, to facilitate risk mitigation
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of Bulgaria's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Bulgaria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Bulgaria's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bulgaria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Bulgaria's Political Outlook, Bulgaria's Economic Outlook, Bulgaria's Business Environment and Bulgaria's Key Industry Sectors.

Bulgaria's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Bulgaria over the next 5-years?

BMI's Bulgaria Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Bulgaria Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Bulgarian Market
    Political strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing Bulgaria.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Bulgaria
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Bulgaria's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Bulgaria
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Bulgarian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Bulgarian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2018.
  • Bulgarian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Bulgaria's foreign relations and alignments with regional neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Bulgaria's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Bulgaria, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into the Bulgarian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Bulgaria's Economic Outlook:

How will Bulgarian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2009-2014?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Bulgaria through end-2014 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Bulgarian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Bulgaria Economic Outlook Contents

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for country, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 set against Bulgarian government views. Underpinning our Bulgaria forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2014, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Bulgaria

  • Economic Activity in Bulgaria
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Bulgaria
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Bulgaria
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in country; currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Bulgaria
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current and capital account balances
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bulgaria
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Bulgarian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Bulgaria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Bulgaria, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Bulgarian government economic policy

Bulgaria's Business Environment:

Bulgaria's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis

Short- and long-term business environment risk ratings for Bulgaria, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness for Bulgaria
Competitiveness of Bulgaria's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Bulgaria Business Environment Contents

  • Bulgaria's Domestic Environment.
    Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bulgaria
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Bulgaria
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Bulgaria's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Bulgaria will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Bulgarian market?

BMI’s identifies investment opportunities in Bulgaria's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and IT.

Bulgaria's Key Industry Sectors Contents

BMI’s independent 5-year forecasts to end-2014's and industry trend analyses for Bulgaria leading industry sectors, including a selection from:


Automotive - Defence & Security - Food & Drink - Freight Transport - Infrastructure
- Oil & Gas - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - Telecommunications

Coverage of Bulgaria's Key Industry Sectors

  • Market Overview
    Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment
  • Latest Developments in Bulgaria
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in country; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • Company Rankings
    Main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Bulgaria
    Historic dataset 2005-2009 and BMI forecasts through end-2014, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Bulgaria's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Bulgaria's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Read about our other Country Forecast Reports

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research


BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.