China Business Forecast Report

Published: February 4 2010 Quarterly   

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The China Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in China.

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Report Description

The China Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Chinese market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in China and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of China's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2014, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of China's economic and industry growth through end-2014
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in China, to facilitate risk mitigation
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of China's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise China's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in China's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in China, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The China Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: China's Political Outlook, China's Economic Outlook, China's Business Environment and China's Key Industry Sectors.

China's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in China over the next 5-years?

BMI's China Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

China Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Chinese Market
    Political strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing China.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for China
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for China's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in China
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Chinese government, assessing threats to the continuity of Chinese economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2018.
  • Chinese Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in China's foreign relations and alignments with regional neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark China's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in China, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into the Chinese government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

China's Economic Outlook:

How will Chinese economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2009-2014?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for China through end-2014 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Chinese growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

China Economic Outlook Contents

The China Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for country, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 set against Chinese government views. Underpinning our China forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2014, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in China

  • Economic Activity in China
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in China
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in China
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in country; currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in China
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current and capital account balances
  • Foreign Direct Investment in China
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Chinese External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for China and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on China, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Chinese government economic policy

China's Business Environment:

China's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis

Short- and long-term business environment risk ratings for China, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness for China
Competitiveness of China's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

China Business Environment Contents

  • China's Domestic Environment.
    Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT
  • Foreign Direct Investment in China
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with China
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

China's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in China will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Chinese market?

BMI’s identifies investment opportunities in China's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and IT.

China's Key Industry Sectors Contents

BMI’s independent 5-year forecasts to end-2014's and industry trend analyses for China leading industry sectors, including a selection from:


Automotive - Defence & Security - Food & Drink - Freight Transport - Infrastructure
- Oil & Gas - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - Telecommunications

Coverage of China's Key Industry Sectors

  • Market Overview
    Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment
  • Latest Developments in China
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in country; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • Company Rankings
    Main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for China
    Historic dataset 2005-2009 and BMI forecasts through end-2014, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in China's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in China's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Read about our other Country Forecast Reports

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research


BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.