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What If Russia Invades Ukraine?

Latest developments in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, where pro-Russian protestors are demanding a referendum on secession, raise the possibility of Russian military intervention. The interim...

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The Short Distance To A Global War Scare

The distance to a truly global geopolitical crisis is not as far as most people would think. In recent years, we have seen several regional crises, but not a truly global one – at least, not since 9/...

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Maintain Vigilance On Ukraine

So far, the crisis in Ukraine has broadly followed the core scenario we outlined in early March, with Russian military activity contained to the Crimean peninsula, the threat of sanctions limited to...

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Ukraine Crisis: Global Ramifications

Russia's decision to intervene in Crimea, Ukraine, has several geopolitical ramifications: 1: It demonstrates Russia's willingness and ability to defend its interests militarily in the 'near abroad...

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Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

In line with many observers, we do not expect Russia to invade Ukraine. However, we cannot completely rule out some form of military action by Russia, if the tense situation between Ukrainians and...

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Ukraine On The Brink

The situation in Ukraine is worsening, amid reports of dozens of people having been killed in clashes between security forces and protestors. The three-month old uprising appears to be reaching a...

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