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What If Russia Invades Ukraine?

Latest developments in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, where pro-Russian protestors are demanding a referendum on secession, raise the possibility of Russian military intervention. The interim...

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Maintain Vigilance On Ukraine

So far, the crisis in Ukraine has broadly followed the core scenario we outlined in early March, with Russian military activity contained to the Crimean peninsula, the threat of sanctions limited to...

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Ukraine Crisis: Global Ramifications

Russia's decision to intervene in Crimea, Ukraine, has several geopolitical ramifications: 1: It demonstrates Russia's willingness and ability to defend its interests militarily in the 'near abroad...

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Big Moves In Emerging Market Currencies

The Chinese yuan has lost 1.6% against the US dollar since end-January, in line with our Asia team's long-held view that multi-year yuan appreciation was not a one-way bet. While the currency is...

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Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

In line with many observers, we do not expect Russia to invade Ukraine. However, we cannot completely rule out some form of military action by Russia, if the tense situation between Ukrainians and...

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Ukraine On The Brink

The situation in Ukraine is worsening, amid reports of dozens of people having been killed in clashes between security forces and protestors. The three-month old uprising appears to be reaching a...

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Russia - Olympian Challenges Ahead

The Winter Olympics were clearly designed to showcase the superpower ambitions of Vladimir Putin's Russia, but lingering allegations of corruption have highlighted some of the country's many...

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Russia: Growth Model Under Pressure

We believe that the sharp slowdown in Russia's economic activity so far this year is structural and not cyclical in nature. This means that there are no easy fixes in sight, and that growth will...

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