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Sino-Japanese Conflict Risk Scenarios

A skirmish or even limited conflict between Japanese and Chinese military forces over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands cannot be ruled out over the coming years. In a special feature published on...

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Urbanisation And Commodity Prices

One of the key drivers of high commodity prices in recent years has been urbanisation in the developing world. In China alone almost 300 million people have moved into cities since the turn of the...

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Global Equities: DM Surging Against EM

Over the long run, we continue to favour developed market (DM) over emerging market (EM) stocks, as the structural underpinnings in DM turn into tailwinds, while those of EM turn into headwinds. In...

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Venezuela: Another Blow To Businesses

The economic situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate, with the black market exchange rate now standing at more than 10 times the official rate, inflation at 54.3%, and reserves continuing to...

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BMI Launches Frontier Markets Monitor

Business Monitor International (BMI) has just launched Frontier Markets Monitor (FMM), a monthly newsletter that provides readers with our views and analysis of political and economic...

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ECB Pushing On A String

Hamstrung by a restrictive mandate that prevents discretionary intervention, the European Central Bank (ECB) has, in recent years, been forced to exploit loopholes in its statute and adopt a gritted...

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The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Nuclear Dynamic

Over the past 24 hours, reports have emerged that Saudi Arabia is ready to take delivery of nuclear weapons from Pakistan at short notice. The Kingdom's presumed motive would be to counterbalance...

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Russia: Growth Model Under Pressure

We believe that the sharp slowdown in Russia's economic activity so far this year is structural and not cyclical in nature. This means that there are no easy fixes in sight, and that growth will...

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