Angola Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Angola Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Angola. The Angola Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Angolan market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Angola and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Angola's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Angola Business Forecast Report | Angola's Political Outlook | Angola's Economic Outlook | Angola's Business Environment | Key Angola Industry Sectors | Angola BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Angola Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Angola's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Angola, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Angola's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Angola's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Angola's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Angola, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Angola Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Angola's Political Outlook, Angola's Economic Outlook, Angola's Business Environment and Angola's Key Industry Sectors.

Angola's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Angola over the next 5 years?

BMI's Angola Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Angola Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Angolan Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Angola.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Angola
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Angola's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Angola
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Angolan government, assessing threats to the continuity of Angolan economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Angolan Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Angola's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Angola's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Angola, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Angolan government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Angola's Economic Outlook:

How will Angolan economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Angola through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Angolan growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Angola Economic Outlook Contents

The Angola Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Angola, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Angolan government views. Underpinning our Angola forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Angola

  • Economic Activity in Angola
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Angola
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Angola
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Angola; Angolan currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Angola
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Angola
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Angolan External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Angola and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Angola database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Angolan government economic policy

Angola's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Angola's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Angola.

Angola Business Environment Contents

  • Angola's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Angola, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Angola
    Competitiveness of Angola's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Angola's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Angola
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Angola
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Angola's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Angola will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Angolan market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Angola's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Angola's Key Industry Sectors - Angolan Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Angola
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Angola; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Angola
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Angola's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Angola's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Angola Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Angola.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

"Our business finds the Risk Rating sections very beneficial, especially as we are planning on entering various SADC countries in the next year and the report is invaluable for our plans."
Customer Development, Beiersdorf Consumer Products, South Africa.

BMI's Executive Summary for Angola

[TOP]

2008: Political Risk To The Fore

Oil exports will continue to underpin reconstruction efforts in Angola, aiding the country's recovery from decades of civil war. Angola looks set to enjoy strong growth and maintain current account and fiscal surpluses over 2008-2012, although these will likely decline on the back of the slowing growth of oil production. Over time, healthy surpluses will become somewhat more precarious and this will be especially the case for the fiscal surplus, which could well tip into deficit if the government continues with overly expansionary spending. On the political front, the prospect of parliamentary elections in September 2008 and presidential elections at least a year later, has increased the level of political risk and we see scope for heightened tensions over the medium term, given growing dissatisfaction with the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party.

The long-awaited parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2008 could upset the relative political stability that has prevailed in Angola since the end of the civil war in 2002. While economic growth has proceeded at a swift pace in recent years, the majority of the population has yet to witness any notable increase in wealth or living standards, sowing the seeds of discontent. Meanwhile, the move of opposition party National Unity for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) to the political centre-ground has boosted its electoral chances. Growing support for UNITA could mean heightened tensions among the heavily armed populace and possible violent unrest surrounding the elections, if the probable scenario of an MPLA victory materialises.

Oil remains Angola's key breadwinner, with forecast waning oil production set to feed through into shrinking current account and fiscal surpluses. Real GDP growth is expected to fall into the single digits from 2010 onwards, largely due to base effects and Angola's adherence to the OPEC production quota. Over 2008-2009 oil revenues will remain buoyant, putting upside pressure on the Angolan kwanza and we believe a revaluation may be in store for early 2009. An unwelcome by-product will be growing 'Dutch disease' whereby the non-oil sector becomes increasingly uncompetitive, potentially stifling growth, although we believe reconstruction efforts will continue apace.

Despite the attractions of its plentiful natural resources, Angola will likely continue to lag behind its regional peers in terms of attracting business. Corruption and bureaucracy remain considerable challenges for foreign companies and the country's physical infrastructure is war-torn and insufficient, although significant improvement has occurred in recent years thanks to the spending of oil revenues on post-war reconstruction and the receipt of sizeable credit lines from several foreign nations. We see ongoing complacency by the government with regards to improvements in the business environment, due to ample oil revenues and Chinese interest.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.