Australia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Australia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Australia. The Australia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Australian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Australia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Australia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Australia Business Forecast Report | Australia's Political Outlook | Australia's Economic Outlook | Australia's Business Environment | Key Australia Industry Sectors | Australia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Australia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Australia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Australia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Australia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Australia's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Australia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Australia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Australia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Australia's Political Outlook, Australia's Economic Outlook, Australia's Business Environment and Australia's Key Industry Sectors.

Australia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Australia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Australia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Australia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Australian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Australia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Australia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Australia's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Australia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Australian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Australian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Australian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Australia's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Australia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Australia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Australian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Australia's Economic Outlook:

How will Australian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Australia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Australian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Australia Economic Outlook Contents

The Australia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Australia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Australian government views. Underpinning our Australia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Australia

  • Economic Activity in Australia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Australia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Australia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Australia; Australian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Australia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Australia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Australian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Australia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Australia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Australian government economic policy

Australia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Australia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Australia.

Australia Business Environment Contents

  • Australia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Australia, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Australia
    Competitiveness of Australia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Australia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Australia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Australia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Australia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Australia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Australian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Australia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Australia's Key Industry Sectors - Australian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Australia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Australia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Australia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Australia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Australia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Australia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Australia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" We find the Risks Rating section the most interesting, due to the useful content and its ability to evaluate scenarios and events, which helps us to reinforce our strategic plan. "
General Manager, Yantai Agrati Fasteners Co., Ltd, China.

BMI's Executive Summary for Australia

[TOP]

New Prime Minister To Bring Subtle Changes

Australia's new prime minister, Kevin Rudd, looks set to introduce some subtle, but potentially significant, changes to government policies over the course of his administration. Among them are reviving the debate over whether Australia should become a republic, placing a greater emphasis on tackling climate change, and reducing Australia's troop presence in Iraq. In addition, we expect Rudd, who speaks fluent Mandarin, to boost relations with China – an increasingly important trade partner. On the economic front, growth should be supported by strong domestic demand, with the main risks coming from a further interest rate rise and the possibility of a major slowdown in global growth, which would hurt Australia's commodities sector.

Australia begins 2008 with its first new government in 11 years, and this will herald change. Some of the most interesting shifts may come on the foreign policy front. For one thing, while we expect the US to remain Australia's main ally, Rudd differs with the Bush administration over climate change and Iraq, and is planning to withdraw 550 combat troops from the latter country. That said, Canberra appears to be committed to its troop deployment in Afghanistan. Rudd is also aiming to hold another referendum on making Australia a republic, although the campaign for this may only gather force towards 2010. Owing to his fluency in Mandarin, we expect Rudd to boost Australia's relations with China.

Australia's economy should remain strong in 2008, on the back of robust domestic demand, and we envisage only a mild slowdown of GDP growth to 3.9% in 2008 from an anticipated 4.2% in 2007. However, we believe that rising inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates again in early 2008, to 7.00%. The risk is that this will hurt Australia's indebted consumers and further boost the Australian dollar, which has been trading at 23-year highs against its US counterpart in 2007. Global economic weakness also poses a risk to demand for Australia's commodity exports. The previous government of John Howard had a solid economic track record, and Rudd must ensure that his administration follows suit. On a more long-term perspective, Rudd will put more emphasis on tackling climate change, especially given that Australia has suffered severe droughts in recent years.

We expect the new government to introduce reforms aimed at further strengthening Australia's business environment, which already scores highly (71.8, with a global ranking of 16th out of 178 states) in our ratings. Rudd is likely to pursue labour market reform and increase spending on education and training to ease Australia's skills shortages, and also extend parental leave. In addition, the government is planning to cut red tape for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and improve the country's technological base.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.