Bahrain Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Bahrain Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Bahrain. The Bahrain Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Bahraini market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bahrain and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Bahrain's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Bahrain Business Forecast Report | Bahrain's Political Outlook | Bahrain's Economic Outlook | Bahrain's Business Environment | Key Bahrain Industry Sectors | Bahrain BMI's Executive Summary | Our Middle East Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Bahrain Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Bahrain's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Bahrain, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Bahrain's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Bahrain's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Bahrain's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bahrain, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Bahrain Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Bahrain's Political Outlook, Bahrain's Economic Outlook, Bahrain's Business Environment and Bahrain's Key Industry Sectors.

Bahrain's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Bahrain over the next 5 years?

BMI's Bahrain Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Bahrain Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Bahraini Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Bahrain.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Bahrain
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Bahrain's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Bahrain
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Bahraini government, assessing threats to the continuity of Bahraini economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Bahraini Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Bahrain's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Bahrain's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Bahrain, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Bahraini government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Bahrain's Economic Outlook:

How will Bahraini economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Bahrain through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Bahraini growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Bahrain Economic Outlook Contents

The Bahrain Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Bahrain, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Bahraini government views. Underpinning our Bahrain forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Bahrain

  • Economic Activity in Bahrain
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Bahrain
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Bahrain
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Bahrain; Bahraini currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Bahrain
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bahrain
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Bahraini External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Bahrain and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Bahrain database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Bahraini government economic policy

Bahrain's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Bahrain's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Bahrain.

Bahrain Business Environment Contents

  • Bahrain's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Bahrain, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Bahrain
    Competitiveness of Bahrain's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Bahrain's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bahrain
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Bahrain
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Bahrain's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Bahrain will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Bahraini market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Bahrain's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Bahrain's Key Industry Sectors - Bahraini Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Bahrain
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Bahrain; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Bahrain
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Bahrain's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Bahrain's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The Bahrain Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Bahrain.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" All sections of the report are equally valuable. They contain the right level of detail, are easy to read, and give a lot of insight into economies' strengths and weaknesses. "
Business Intelligence Manager, Schneider Electric KSA, Saudi Arabia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Bahrain

[TOP]

Positive Economic Outlook, But Employment An Issue

Economic diversification is a major theme in Bahrain, as it is throughout the Middle East. However, the issue is more pressing in Bahrain, in light of its relatively small oil reserves and declining oil production. Diversification into new industries – with the emphasis on the services sector – is essential, not just to ensure economic growth, but also to provide new job opportunities. Meanwhile, Bahrain is enjoying rising inflows from abroad, thanks to large, petrodollar-funded portfolio investments.

New rules, raising the cost of work permits, have been put in place to encourage the employment of Bahraini nationals over foreign workers. The move is part of a government drive to reduce unemployment levels among Bahraini citizens and diffuse any social unrest. Foreign nationals dominate the local job market and unemployment has the potential to become a major political issue, not least because it disproportionately affects the Shi'a population, which largely supports the parliamentary opposition. However, given Bahrain's dependence on foreign labour, we believe that the increased fees could have an inflationary impact at a time when Bahrain is already experiencing rising inflation levels.

We are forecasting a slight decline in GDP growth to 5.4% in 2008, on the back of slowing oil production. However, moving forward, it is the non-oil sector that will be the key driver of the Bahraini economy, led by key sectors such as financial services, telecommunications and real estate. Bahrain is establishing itself as a regional banking hub, with the sector strengthened by several recent mergers, acquisitions and share offerings. We see this loosening of Bahrain's oil dependence as a positive step and one that should reduce the volatility of GDP growth during our forecast period; we anticipate steady growth of 4.5-5% per annum over the next five years.

We retain our positive view on Bahrain's business environment, with the Kingdom providing an attractive investment climate for international businesses. The government is receptive to foreign investment and indeed, Bahrain already enjoys high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). A number of foreign banks have announced plans to establish operations in the Kingdom, aided by the lack of capital restrictions on non-Bahraini firms and the ongoing liberalisation of the insurance market. As the non-oil sector – which is driven primarily by private sector companies – grows in importance, so the government's influence over the economy is waning.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.