Bosnia & Herzegovina Businessforecast Industry Forecast
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The Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Bosnia & Herzegovina. The Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Bosnia & Herzegovinian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bosnia & Herzegovina and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Bosnia & Herzegovina's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report | Bosnia & Herzegovina's Political Outlook | Bosnia & Herzegovina's Economic Outlook | Bosnia & Herzegovina's Business Environment | Key Bosnia & Herzegovina Industry Sectors | Bosnia & Herzegovina BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Bosnia & Herzegovina's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Bosnia & Herzegovina, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Bosnia & Herzegovina's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Bosnia & Herzegovina's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Bosnia & Herzegovina's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bosnia & Herzegovina, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Political Outlook, Bosnia & Herzegovina's Economic Outlook, Bosnia & Herzegovina's Business Environment and Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Industry Sectors.
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Bosnia & Herzegovina's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Bosnia & Herzegovina over the next 5 years?

BMI's Bosnia & Herzegovina Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Bosnia & Herzegovina Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Bosnia & Herzegovinian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Bosnia & Herzegovina.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Bosnia & Herzegovina
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Bosnia & Herzegovina's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Bosnia & Herzegovinian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Bosnia & Herzegovinian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Bosnia & Herzegovinian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Bosnia & Herzegovina's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Bosnia & Herzegovina's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Bosnia & Herzegovina, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Bosnia & Herzegovinian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's Economic Outlook:

How will Bosnia & Herzegovinian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Bosnia & Herzegovina through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Bosnia & Herzegovinian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic Outlook Contents

The Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Bosnia & Herzegovina, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Bosnia & Herzegovinian government views. Underpinning our Bosnia & Herzegovina forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • Economic Activity in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Bosnia & Herzegovina; Bosnia & Herzegovinian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Bosnia & Herzegovinian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Bosnia & Herzegovina and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Bosnia & Herzegovina database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Bosnia & Herzegovinian government economic policy

Bosnia & Herzegovina's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Bosnia & Herzegovina's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment Contents

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Bosnia & Herzegovina, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Competitiveness of Bosnia & Herzegovina's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Bosnia & Herzegovina's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Bosnia & Herzegovina will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Bosnia & Herzegovinian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Bosnia & Herzegovina's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Bosnia & Herzegovina's Key Industry Sectors - Bosnia & Herzegovinian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Bosnia & Herzegovina; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Bosnia & Herzegovina's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Bosnia & Herzegovina's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 
"The Economic Forecast is the most valuable for our company. It helps us, as economic and commercial diplomats, to better analyse future trends within the economic developments of the region by looking at the big picture. Once we know our region's position, it helps us to better understand the particularities of each country/market, and to make more precise assessment of the risks and potential of those markets "
Commercial Officer, Embassy of Canada, Serbia.
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BMI's Executive Summary for Bosnia-Herzegovina

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Divisions Compromise Reform Prospects

In our Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q108 we examine the effects of a stalled institutional reform process and ongoing political wrangling between the country's ethnic leaders on the wider economy. We are concerned that a lack of political commitment to EU convergence and prospective entry negotiations with the bloc could derail the country's wider market-oriented reform process. That said, although EU entry prospects remain subdued amid reluctance from Bosnia's political leadership to compromise on constitutional amendments, particularly of Bosnia's police forces, some progress on economic reform appears to have been made. Indeed, Bosnian leaders agreed to a program of economic reform on October 16, highlighting the much-needed restructuring of the economic landscape. We remain optimistic about Bosnia's growth potential, forecasting real GDP to expand by 6.2% by end-2007 and remaining above 6.0% until 2012, when it will reach 7.0%. Our generally upbeat view on economic growth is underpinned by the government's sustained ability to attract robust levels of FDI.

Our outlook on crucial institutional reforms in Bosnia and prospects for initiating EU entry talks by 2008 have taken a significant turn for the worse, as the country's rival ethnic leaders have failed to compromise on key reforms of Bosnia's divided police forces. Tripartite leaders of the Bosnian Croat, Serb and Muslim groups have remained reluctant to compromise on placing the Republika Srpska (RS) and Muslim-Croat Federation police forces under central control and a single state budget. Reforms of the security services have been the vital issue obstructing the initiation of the EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement, the signing of which has marked the main consensus- building policy agenda of the EU High Representative Miroslav Lajcak.

Industrial production for Bosnia-Herzegovina grew 5.7% y-o-y in August, slightly up from 5.6% y-o-y in July, with output for January to August increasing 8.0% y-o-y. The robust growth masks the differential performance of the two autonomous entities. The Federation recorded growth of 7.3% y-o-y in August, while the RS experienced growth in industrial production of just 2.6% y-o-y. Furthermore, over the first eight months of 2007, output in the Federation expanded by 11.9% yo- y, while in the RS production grew 0.4% y-o-y. We forecast industrial production to grow 10.02% by end-2007, reaching a peak of 11.34% growth in 2009, and then slowing to 8.03% by the end of our forecast period in 2012.

Bosnia's capital and financial account has recently demonstrated a robust performance, and is likely to continue to see strong inflows in 2007. Large privatisation proceeds from the sale of Telekom Srpska and Bosnian oil companies in 2006, will further add robust capital inflows into the economy for the full-year 2007. Indeed, this appears to have filtered through to Q207, where FDI reached an impressive US$1bn, up from just US$130mn during the same period a year earlier, bringing Bosnia's capital and financial account surplus to US$414mn in Q207. The Central Bank of Bosnia-Herzegovina (CBBH) expects FDI into the country to exceed the BAM1.1bn of inflows seen in 2006.
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Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East
Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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