Brazil Businessforecast Industry Forecast

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The Brazil Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Brazil. The Brazil Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Brazilian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Brazil and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Brazil's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses for the Brazil Business Forecast Report

Forecast the pace and stability of Brazil's economic and industry growth through end-2012
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Brazil, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
Assess critical shortcomings of Brazil's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
Contextualise Brazil's country risks against North and South America regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
Target business opportunities in Brazil's high-growth industry sectors
Evaluate external threats to doing business in Brazil, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Brazil Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Brazil's Political Outlook, Brazil's Economic Outlook, Brazil's Business Environment and Brazil's Key Industry Sectors.

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Brazil's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Brazil over the next 5 years?

BMI's Brazil Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Brazil Political Outlook Contents

SWOT Analysis for the Brazilian Market
Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Brazil.
Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Brazil
BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Brazil's risk are compared with North and South America regional and global averages.
Current Administration and Policy-making in Brazil
BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Brazilian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Brazilian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
Brazilian Foreign Policy
BMI examines key trends and shifts in Brazil's foreign relations and alignments with North and South America neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

Benchmark Brazil's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Brazil, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
Gain valuable insights into the Brazilian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Brazil's Economic Outlook:

How will Brazilian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Brazil through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Brazilian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Brazil Economic Outlook Contents

The Brazil Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Brazil, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Brazilian government views. Underpinning our Brazil forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Brazil

Economic Activity in Brazil
Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
Fiscal Policy in Brazil
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
Monetary Policy in Brazil
Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Brazil; Brazilian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
Balance of Payments in Brazil
Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil
Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
Brazilian External Debt
Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Brazil and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Brazil database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Brazilian government economic policy

Brazil's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Brazil's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Brazil.

Brazil Business Environment Contents

Brazil's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Brazil, benchmarked against ratings for North and South America and neighbouring countries.
Country Competitiveness for Brazil
Competitiveness of Brazil's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Brazil's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil
Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
Foreign Trade with Brazil
Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Brazil's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Brazil will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Brazilian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Brazil's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Brazil's Key Industry Sectors - Brazilian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

Latest Developments in Brazil
Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Brazil; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
5-year Industry Forecast for Brazil
Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Brazil's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Brazil's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the North and South America Business Forecast Reports?

The Brazil Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Brazil.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

ABB Mexico, SA de CV, American Express Argentina, American Honda Motor Co Inc, Ansa Technologies Ltd, Antigua Commercial Bank, ATCO Structures Inc, Atlas Copco Chilena, Banco de Mexico, BASF Interservicios SA de CV, Bristol Myers Squibb, Carl Zeiss de Mexico SA de CV, Chrysler LLC, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colgate-Palmolive CA, Glaxosmithkline Chile Ltda, Hyatt International, Lafarge SA, Levi Strauss Mexico, Merck SA, Merrill Lynch - Brazil, Siemens S.A. de C.V., Sony Ericsson, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever Caribbean, West Indies Oil Company

" The most useful section for us is the Central Economic Forecast. We use this as the basis for our volume and financial projections, as it gives us a sense of the economic context we are operating in. "

Knowledge & Insights Manager, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colombia.

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BMI's Executive Summary for Brazil

[TOP]

Positive Outlook

Brazil has consolidated its economic recovery, and real GDP growth continues to impress. We believe that the country's improving macroeconomic fundamentals will be supportive of higher rates of economic activity going forward, and as such, we project that the economy will expand by approximately 4-5% on an annual basis throughout the forecast period to 2012. Our projections are based on the vast improvement in terms of macroeconomic stability, which represents a departure from the more volatile economic cycles of the past, and we believe that Brazil will reach investment grade status in the next year or so. Having said that, breaking free from the economy's deeply embedded and rigid structural constraints will not be an easy task, although we believe that over the forecast period macroeconomic conditions will remain stable enough for the government to continue addressing these issues. While political reform is occurring slowly, political scandals continue to dominate the headlines, which could weigh on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's cross-party coalition in the legislature.

Brazil's political scene remains mixed, albeit with a positive outlook. On the one hand, the government has made significant advances in terms of political reform, with a recent ruling by the Supreme Federal Tribunal, that is expected to consolidate government coalitions as well as political parties. Similarly, the recent passage of the tax bill in the lower house should ensure a steady stream of revenues over the next four years, a vital step towards fiscal responsibility going forward. On the other hand, however, corruption-related scandals continue to plague President Lula's government. Despite being absolved from accusations of corrupt and fraudulent activities in September, the president of the senate has stated in October that he would step down from his position for a period of 45 days, after losing support from various members of his party.

The Brazilian economy recorded its 21st consecutive quarter of uninterrupted economic expansion in Q207, posting robust outturns across most sectors of the economy. Real GDP growth came in at 5.4% y-o-y, and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q207, which is evidence of a solid economic expansion. Key to the current growth cycle has been an expansionary monetary policy, which has provided a large impetus to private consumption and fixed capital formation, two main drivers of growth. Given that Brazil's macroeconomic fundamentals have significantly improved, we believe that the economy is poised to embark on a longer-term growth trajectory that will see it expand by approximately 4-5% on an annual basis throughout the forecast period to 2012.

Brazil's score in our business environment ratings has risen to 48.9 this year from 44.5 in 2006 on the back of various improvements. Meanwhile, the country's ranking has also improved, rising 18 positions , to 71 (out of the 167 countries we cover) from 89 previously in 2006. Indeed, the business environment has benefited from sustained economic expansion and a vigorous reform-oriented political agenda. Considerable gains were made in the 'infrastructure category' which increased from 55.3 in 2006 to 59.7 in 2007. That said, the score for Brazilian institutions has deteriorated somewhat to 41.7 from 42.3 on the back of worsening of the 'rule of law' and 'contract enforceability' categories.

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Read about our other Business Forecast Reports

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

Middle East and Africa

Angola, Bahrain, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kenya, Kuwait, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Turkey, UAE, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.