The Caucasus' Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in the Caucasus over the next 5
years?
BMI's Caucasus Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats
posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making,
deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.
Caucasus Political Outlook Contents
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SWOT Analysis for the Caucasian Market
Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the Caucasus.
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Political Stability and Risk Assessment for the Caucasus
BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political
stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for the Caucasus' risk are compared
with Europe regional and global averages.
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Current Administration and Policy-making in the Caucasus
BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in regional governments,
assessing threats to the continuity of regional economic policy, and likely
changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
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Regional Foreign Policy
BMI examines key trends and shifts in the Caucasus' foreign relations and
alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on
external influences.
Key Benefits
- Benchmark the Caucasus' risk profile against its neighbours, the global and
regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business
markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the
business environment in the Caucasus, and to your company's current operations and
future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into regional government and policy-making,
through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their
exclusive network of private and public sector sources.
The Caucasus' Economic Outlook:
How will regional economic policy-making and performance impact corporate
profitability over 2008-12?
BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for the Caucasus through
end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate regional
growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including
central bank policy, on profitability.
Caucasus Economic Outlook Contents
The Caucasus Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts
for theCaucasus, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009,
2010, 2011 and 2012 set against regional government views. Underpinning our
Caucasus forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012,
covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and
investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.
Coverage of Key Economic Issues in the the Caucasus
- Economic Activity in the Caucasus
Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and
consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer
confidence)
- Fiscal Policy in the Caucasus
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government
finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
- Monetary Policy in the Caucasus
Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail
price inflation, consumer price inflation);
exchange rate policy in the Caucasus;
regional currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows;
exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
- Balance of Payments in the Caucasus
Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
- Foreign Direct Investment in the Caucasus
Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment
climate
- Regional External Debt
Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)
Key Benefits
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for the Caucasus and
underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic
Caucasus
database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of
private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of regional government economic policy
The Caucasus' Business Environment:
How internationally competitive is the Caucasus' regulatory environment,
and what changes can be expected?
BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax
burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability,
infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in
the Caucasus.
Caucasus Business Environment Contents
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Caucasus Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for the Caucasus, benchmarked
against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
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Country Competitiveness for the Caucasus
Competitiveness of the Caucasus' business operating environment in supporting
corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon,
compared with regional neighbours.
Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in the Caucasus' Domestic Environment
Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate
tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of
credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of
business confidence; infrastructure and IT
- Foreign Direct Investment in the Caucasus
Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws;
attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major
foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors
attracting most interest
- Foreign Trade with the Caucasus
Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation
measures, tariffs and
membership of trade areas
The Caucasus' Key Industry Sectors
Which industry sectors in the Caucasus will grow fastest, and where are the
major investment opportunities in the regional market?
BMI targets investment opportunities in the Caucasus' high growth industries,
including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas,
pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.
Coverage of the Caucasus' Key Industry Sectors -
Regional Market Overview
Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and
privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business
environment
- Latest Developments in the Caucasus
Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions,
and implications for sector performance;
company rankings for national and multinational companies in the Caucasus; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main
brands, products and services
- 5-year Industry Forecast for the Caucasus
Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering
headline industry data broken out by sub sector
Key Benefits
- Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in the Caucasus' high growth
industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify
key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business
opportunities.
- Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational
companies operating in the Caucasus' major industry sectors, including analysis of
recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product
launches and latest deals.
Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?
The Caucasus Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs,
Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors
with commercial interests in the Caucasus.
Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government
departments and multinational organisations around the world.
Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:
Abbott International,
Air Liquide,
Akzo Nobel,
Alcatel,
Alpha Cement Group,
Atlas Copco,
BASF,
British American Tobacco Company,
Coca-Cola HBC,
Colgate Palmolive Romania,
Deloitte & Touche,
Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd,
Ernst & Young,
Exxonmobil Ltd,
Heineken Brewery,
Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o,
Indesit Company,
Microsoft Software,
Novartis Pharma Services Inc,
Omnitel,
Opus Land Development SA,
Provident Financial,
Raiffeisen Bank,
Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft.,
Siemens Srl,
Xerox Ltd
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