China Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The China Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in China. The China Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Chinese market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in China and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of China's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the China Business Forecast Report | China's Political Outlook | China's Economic Outlook | China's Business Environment | Key China Industry Sectors | China BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the China Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of China's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in China, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of China's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise China's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in China's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in China, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The China Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: China's Political Outlook, China's Economic Outlook, China's Business Environment and China's Key Industry Sectors.

China's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in China over the next 5 years?

BMI's China Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

China Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Chinese Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing China.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for China
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for China's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in China
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Chinese government, assessing threats to the continuity of Chinese economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Chinese Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in China's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark China's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in China, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Chinese government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

China's Economic Outlook:

How will Chinese economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for China through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Chinese growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

China Economic Outlook Contents

The China Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for China, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Chinese government views. Underpinning our China forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in China

  • Economic Activity in China
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in China
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in China
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in China; Chinese currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in China
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in China
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Chinese External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for China and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic China database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Chinese government economic policy

China's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is China's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in China.

China Business Environment Contents

  • China's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for China, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for China
    Competitiveness of China's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in China's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in China
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with China
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

China's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in China will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Chinese market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in China's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of China's Key Industry Sectors - Chinese Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in China
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in China; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for China
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in China's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in China's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The China Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in China.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" We find the Risks Rating section the most interesting, due to the useful content and its ability to evaluate scenarios and events, which helps us to reinforce our strategic plan. "
General Manager, Yantai Agrati Fasteners Co., Ltd, China.

BMI's Executive Summary for China

[TOP]

Overheating An Increasing Concern

Despite economic growth slowing slightly in Q307, China now looks guaranteed to secure its fastest annual pace of expansion in 14 years in 2007. Real GDP data for Q307 revealed that growth slowed to 11.5% y-o-y, down from a 12-year high of 11.9% in the previous quarter, and with full year growth anticipated to be far in excess of 11.0%, Chinese authorities will now be under real pressure to increase measures to prevent the economy from overheating. We are forecasting economic growth to slow to 10.4% in 2008, and further still in 2009 to 9.7%, as China takes further steps to slow the pace of growth. However, we note that the pace of tightening is unlikely to increase significantly, as officials appear largely satisfied with the deliberate and measured approach to monetary policy currently being employed.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s Congress, which drew to a close on October 22, has provided a strong indication of who is to succeed President Hu Jintao, and his premier, Wen Jiabao, when the two stand down in 2012-13. The selection of two younger 'fifth generation' officials, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, to the Politburo Standing Committee, China's highest decision-making body, suggests that the two men are now well placed to assume new state posts when the National People's Congress (parliament) meets in spring 2008. Overall though, we expect broad policy continuity going forward.

With the economy growing in excess of 11.0% y-o-y, and inflation remaining far in excess of the government's 3.0% target, it appears that officials are no longer able to keep their currency undervalued for risk of the economy overheating. As such, we see faster yuan appreciation as an inevitability. However, having run a series of scenarios for accelerated currency gains, we note that allowing the yuan to appreciate too quickly may result in a dramatic economic slowdown. Yet, with ensuring stability the overriding objective for policymakers, it is likely they will continue to err on the side of caution with respect to exchange rate policy, at least for the time being.

Our recently updated business environment ratings have revealed that while China's overall score has improved, from 51.6 to 52.5, its ranking has fallen, from 59th to 61st out of 167 countries. Where China suffers in our ratings is its poor scores for institutions and market orientation. More specifically, the country achieves a very low ranking for bureaucracy (123rd) and legal framework (127th), which drags its overall institutions score down to 42.7, and for taxes (144th), which see its market orientation score constrained to 46.7. These are three areas in which China must markedly improve if it is to become a more attractive place in which to do business.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.