Colombia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

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The Colombia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Colombia. The Colombia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Colombian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Colombia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Colombia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses for the Colombia Business Forecast Report

Forecast the pace and stability of Colombia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Colombia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
Assess critical shortcomings of Colombia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
Contextualise Colombia's country risks against North and South America regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
Target business opportunities in Colombia's high-growth industry sectors
Evaluate external threats to doing business in Colombia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Colombia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Colombia's Political Outlook, Colombia's Economic Outlook, Colombia's Business Environment and Colombia's Key Industry Sectors.

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Colombia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Colombia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Colombia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Colombia Political Outlook Contents

SWOT Analysis for the Colombian Market
Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Colombia.
Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Colombia
BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Colombia's risk are compared with North and South America regional and global averages.
Current Administration and Policy-making in Colombia
BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Colombian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Colombian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
Colombian Foreign Policy
BMI examines key trends and shifts in Colombia's foreign relations and alignments with North and South America neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

Benchmark Colombia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Colombia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
Gain valuable insights into the Colombian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Colombia's Economic Outlook:

How will Colombian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Colombia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Colombian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Colombia Economic Outlook Contents

The Colombia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Colombia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Colombian government views. Underpinning our Colombia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Colombia

Economic Activity in Colombia
Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
Fiscal Policy in Colombia
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
Monetary Policy in Colombia
Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Colombia; Colombian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
Balance of Payments in Colombia
Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia
Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
Colombian External Debt
Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Colombia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Colombia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Colombian government economic policy

Colombia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Colombia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Colombia.

Colombia Business Environment Contents

Colombia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Colombia, benchmarked against ratings for North and South America and neighbouring countries.
Country Competitiveness for Colombia
Competitiveness of Colombia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Colombia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia
Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
Foreign Trade with Colombia
Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Colombia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Colombia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Colombian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Colombia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Colombia's Key Industry Sectors - Colombian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

Latest Developments in Colombia
Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Colombia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
5-year Industry Forecast for Colombia
Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Colombia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Colombia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the North and South America Business Forecast Reports?

The Colombia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Colombia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

ABB Mexico, SA de CV, American Express Argentina, American Honda Motor Co Inc, Ansa Technologies Ltd, Antigua Commercial Bank, ATCO Structures Inc, Atlas Copco Chilena, Banco de Mexico, BASF Interservicios SA de CV, Bristol Myers Squibb, Carl Zeiss de Mexico SA de CV, Chrysler LLC, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colgate-Palmolive CA, Glaxosmithkline Chile Ltda, Hyatt International, Lafarge SA, Levi Strauss Mexico, Merck SA, Merrill Lynch - Brazil, Siemens S.A. de C.V., Sony Ericsson, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever Caribbean, West Indies Oil Company

" The most useful section for us is the Central Economic Forecast. We use this as the basis for our volume and financial projections, as the economic forecast gives us a sense of the economic context we are operating in. "

Knowledge & Insights Manager, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colombia.

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BMI's Executive Summary for Colombia

[TOP]

Decelerating But Resilient Demand

The economy is displaying an unexpected resilience, which could set the tone for Colombia's economic and political fortunes over the next five years. We expect expansion to moderate to a more sustainable level over the forecast period, as an eventual deceleration in domestic demand begins to cool down the economy. The central bank is likely to keep a watchful eye on inflation and will be prepared to hike interest rates further, if necessary. The key to sustainable growth lies at the feet of the government, whose success in implementing key fiscal reform and privatising state-owned assets has been encouraging. Ongoing political troubles, however, could pose a risk to these goals. Colombia's investment arena and business environment has made exceptional gains since the onset of President Álvaro Uribe's administration in 2002. However, an ongoing scandal involving the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC), as well as long, drawn-out negotiations with the US over a permanent trade deal, represent the major risks to the economy.

Despite the legacy of over four decades of civil conflict, Colombia's democratic political system is still intact. Uribe's landslide re-election in 2006 and his unwavering level of public support since will ensure relative policy continuity. His alliance does, however, remain vulnerable to sporadic outbreaks of terrorist activity and the emergence of a scandal in which senior politicians have been linked to the right-wing paramilitary group AUC. We believe that the president's credibility must stay intact in order to secure the renewal of the 'Plan Colombia' aid initiative and a valuable free trade deal with the US.

Colombia's economic prospects are relatively bright, and we expect long-term growth to level out to around 3.7% by 2012. Inflation – a cause for concern in 2007 – has already shown signs of moderation, and we expect it to fall to 3.5% over the next five years. We expect the exchange rate to strengthen in the medium term, although we hold slight concerns about the negative effects of a weakening external picture, controls on capital inflows and US financial sector woes. Both the fiscal accounts and balance of payments will suffer from a decline in the energy sector. Indeed, we are concerned that the country could become a net importer of oil by 2010.

The weak security situation remains the biggest hurdle to an admittedly improving business environment. A break in peace talks with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) has not been ideal and our main concern is a potential flare-up in insurgent activity. A further drawback is the high level of corporate taxation, although the government's reform package could partially allay these business concerns if eventually signed by the legislature. We are encouraged by the ongoing governmental efforts to open up public enterprises to private investors, the latest of which will the 20% partial sale of state energy monopoly Ecopetrol.

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Read about our other Business Forecast Reports

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

Middle East and Africa

Angola, Bahrain, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kenya, Kuwait, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Turkey, UAE, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

Business Monitor International
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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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Company Research
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