Croatia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Croatia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Croatia. The Croatia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Croatian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Croatia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Croatia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Croatia Business Forecast Report | Croatia's Political Outlook | Croatia's Economic Outlook | Croatia's Business Environment | Key Croatia Industry Sectors | Croatia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Croatia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Croatia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Croatia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Croatia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Croatia's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Croatia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Croatia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Croatia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Croatia's Political Outlook, Croatia's Economic Outlook, Croatia's Business Environment and Croatia's Key Industry Sectors.

Croatia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Croatia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Croatia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Croatia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Croatian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Croatia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Croatia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Croatia's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Croatia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Croatian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Croatian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Croatian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Croatia's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Croatia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Croatia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Croatian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Croatia's Economic Outlook:

How will Croatian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Croatia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Croatian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Croatia Economic Outlook Contents

The Croatia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Croatia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Croatian government views. Underpinning our Croatia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Croatia

  • Economic Activity in Croatia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Croatia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Croatia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Croatia; Croatian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Croatia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Croatia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Croatian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Croatia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Croatia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Croatian government economic policy

Croatia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Croatia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Croatia.

Croatia Business Environment Contents

  • Croatia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Croatia, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Croatia
    Competitiveness of Croatia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Croatia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Croatia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Croatia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Croatia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Croatia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Croatian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Croatia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Croatia's Key Industry Sectors - Croatian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Croatia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Croatia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Croatia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Croatia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Croatia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Croatia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Croatia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" BMI's Business Forecast Report has proved to be what we were seeking for our strategic planning process. The most useful sections for our purpose are the Central Economic Forecast and the Key Economic Sectors, which will support my team to update our strategic planning for the next 5 years. "
Chief Operating Officer, PSV Company, Romania.

BMI's Executive Summary for Croatia

[TOP]

Election Run-Up

Whatever the outcome in the tightly run November 2007 elections, the policies of both major parties for 2008 and beyond are strikingly similar. Both are campaigning on improving public administration efficiency and continuing the reform of the judiciary to better tackle corruption. The incumbent Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has mentioned investing more in health and continuing the privatisation process, whereas the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is focusing more on 'social justice' and the redistribution of wealth. Key goals such as EU and NATO membership, as well as reducing the country's foreign debt pile and large current account deficit are shared. Perhaps even more surprisingly, the broadly left-leaning SDP is also supportive of HDZ's plans to reduce the tax burden for business, in order to help boost productivity and economic growth. In this sense, for foreign investors, neither an HDZ nor an SDP victory would be a major disappointment.

While the Croatian government is still officially hoping for 2009 EU entry, we believe that 2011 is a more realistic date, with 2010 still technically possible. A priority of the current rotating EU presidency – held by Portugal – is to finalise the European Treaty. One of its aims is to slim-down bureaucracy and institutions, facilitating further enlargement. However, agreement on the Treaty by the respective 27 member states is a thorny issue, with many likely to hold national referenda, and a rejection cannot be ruled out. Existing provisions by the Treaty of Rome, which is legal until a new document is agreed, curb the bloc to its existing complement of members.

An expected gradual change in debt dynamics towards kuna-denominated borrowing makes good sense for Croatia. The IMF has warned that the country ranks second globally in share of loans in foreign currencies in total indebtedness. On the positive side, BMI believes gross external debt reached a peak at the end of 2006, at a massive 89.8% of GDP, and is set to fall to 86% of GDP in 2007, and 75% of GDP by 2012. Yet in the wake of a likely global tightening of financing conditions, Croatia could face problems rolling over maturing debt and raising funds to part-finance a current account deficit in the magnitude of 8% of GDP.

Economic migration looks set to pose a huge problem for Croatia, should EU accession occur as planned around the turn of the decade. This may sound illogical given current 14% unemployment, but it has already posed similar problems in Poland, which had a parallel double-digit unemployment rate. Arguably, Croatia already suffers from such problems. Data from the World Bank cite a national migration rate of 29.4%, with every third highly educated Croatian living abroad. Even if post-accession labour market restrictions were imposed on Croatian workers (as they were in the case of Bulgaria and Romania in many countries) the existing problem would be severely exacerbated.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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Company Research
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