Egypt Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Egypt Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Egypt. The Egypt Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Egyptian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Egypt and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Egypt's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Egypt Business Forecast Report | Egypt's Political Outlook | Egypt's Economic Outlook | Egypt's Business Environment | Key Egypt Industry Sectors | Egypt BMI's Executive Summary | Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Egypt Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Egypt's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Egypt, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Egypt's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Egypt's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Egypt's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Egypt, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Egypt Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Egypt's Political Outlook, Egypt's Economic Outlook, Egypt's Business Environment and Egypt's Key Industry Sectors.

Egypt's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Egypt over the next 5 years?

BMI's Egypt Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Egypt Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Egyptian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Egypt.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Egypt
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Egypt's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Egypt
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Egyptian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Egyptian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Egyptian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Egypt's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Egypt's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Egypt, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Egyptian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Egypt's Economic Outlook:

How will Egyptian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Egypt through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Egyptian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Egypt Economic Outlook Contents

The Egypt Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Egypt, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Egyptian government views. Underpinning our Egypt forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Egypt

  • Economic Activity in Egypt
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Egypt
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Egypt
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Egypt; Egyptian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Egypt
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Egyptian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Egypt and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Egypt database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Egyptian government economic policy

Egypt's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Egypt's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Egypt.

Egypt Business Environment Contents

  • Egypt's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Egypt, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Egypt
    Competitiveness of Egypt's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Egypt's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Egypt
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Egypt's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Egypt will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Egyptian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Egypt's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Egypt's Key Industry Sectors - Egyptian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Egypt
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Egypt; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Egypt
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Egypt's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Egypt's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Egypt Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Egypt.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the Commercial area. "
Country Manager, DHL Express, Egypt.

BMI's Executive Summary for Egypt

[TOP]

2008 Set To Be Another Good Year

We are confident that the stream of positive news we have had from Egypt over the last three years will continue into 2008. Barring any political shocks, the overall picture is investor friendly, and, if anything, reform prospects are looking up since our last Business Forecast Report. The Banque du Caire privatisation looks set to go ahead in 2008, and the government recently said it was planning to reduce property tax from 46% of annual rental value to 8%, another growth-positive move which also boosts Egypt's perceived market orientation. Politics remains the major risk, and the reason why Egypt will not fully address its two major macroeconomic problems though: inflation and the fiscal deficit. However, the overall outlook is sanguine.

Most political observers had a bit of scare this August with rumours of President Hosni Mubarak's incapacitation and even death doing the rounds. To the relief of most this turned out to be unfounded, but it certainly raised the question we have highlighted in the past: is Egypt ready to deal with such an eventuality? We think on balance, the National Democratic Party (NDP) probably has a contingency plan, most likely in the form of a quick and smooth transfer of power to the president's son Gamal Mubarak in the first instance, to be followed up with a referendum or election to cement the decision. However, without the strongman figure at the top, there is room for some instability if the worst does happen.

With good growth, a current account surplus, an appreciating currency and buoyant financial markets, the macroeconomic outlook for Egypt is fairly sound. With ongoing reforms and privatisations on the table, this rosy scenario looks set to persist into 2008. However, two threats exist: a budget deficit of around 7.0% of GDP and an inflation rate that just will not fall. The government is unwilling to take any unpopular policies that could spark public unrest, and hence we do not see it either cutting spending or raising interest rates. This not only threatens to prolong the problem, it also undermines confidence in the authorities' credibility, at least in macroeconomic terms.

Egypt is quite a significant step down from its nearest competitor in the East Med region, in our newly updated Business Environment ratings matrix, with a score of 41.9, reflecting the amount of reform still needed before the investment climate finally shakes off the legacy of several decades of constitutionally enshrined socialism. Indeed, it is in need of work in all three categories, although infrastructure (44.1) marginally outpaces institutions (40.0) and market orientation (40.2). Overall, we expect the score to improve gradually over the coming years, in line with our view that the political will for reform remains in place. However, as we state elsewhere, the government's unwillingness to rock the boat politically suggests it will be slow going.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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Company Research
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