Ethiopia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Ethiopia. The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Ethiopian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ethiopia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ethiopia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Ethiopia Business Forecast Report | Ethiopia's Political Outlook | Ethiopia's Economic Outlook | Ethiopia's Business Environment | Key Ethiopia Industry Sectors | Ethiopia BMI's Executive Summary | Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Ethiopia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Ethiopia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Ethiopia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Ethiopia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Ethiopia's country risks against Middle East & Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Ethiopia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ethiopia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Ethiopia's Political Outlook, Ethiopia's Economic Outlook, Ethiopia's Business Environment and Ethiopia's Key Industry Sectors.

Ethiopia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Ethiopia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Ethiopia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Ethiopia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ethiopian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ethiopia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Ethiopia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Ethiopia's risk are compared with Middle East & Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Ethiopia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Ethiopian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Ethiopian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Ethiopian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Ethiopia's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East & Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Ethiopia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Ethiopia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Ethiopian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Ethiopia's Economic Outlook:

How will Ethiopian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ethiopia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Ethiopian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Ethiopia Economic Outlook Contents

The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Ethiopia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Ethiopian government views. Underpinning our Ethiopia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Ethiopia

  • Economic Activity in Ethiopia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Ethiopia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Ethiopia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Ethiopia; Ethiopian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Ethiopia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Ethiopian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Ethiopia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Ethiopia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Ethiopian government economic policy

Ethiopia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Ethiopia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Business Environment Contents

  • Ethiopia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Ethiopia, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East & Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Ethiopia
    Competitiveness of Ethiopia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Ethiopia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Ethiopia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Ethiopia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Ethiopia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Ethiopian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Ethiopia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Ethiopia's Key Industry Sectors - Ethiopian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Ethiopia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Ethiopia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Ethiopia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Ethiopia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Ethiopia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East & Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Ethiopia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The most useful section of BMI's report for my business is the Economic Outlook, which contains specific details of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to my business from within the country. This helps me, when planning for the future to reach the widest market and also gives me the edge in order to overtake my competitors. "
Chairman, Bavarian Auto Trading. BMW Egypt, Egypt.

BMI's Executive Summary for Ethiopia

[TOP]

2008: Trouble With The Neighbours

High political risk continues to blight Ethiopia, with many cross-border conflicts ongoing and far from resolution. The country's ruling elite is primarily of Tigrayan ethnicity and faces rebel uprisings from many of the different ethnic groupings, including the Oromo, as well as overseas opposition from the Amhara, who were the main ethnic group of the ruling class before democracy arrived. Ethiopia is also engaged in a stand-off with Eritrea, a former region of Ethiopia, primarily composed of Tigrinya, Tigre, and Kunama ethnicities, which gained independence in 1993 following a 30-year civil war. Finally, Ethiopia's armed forces are supporting Somalia's transitional federal government and actively engaged in fighting the Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia (ALS), which has been battling the government for control over Somalia. This political risk threatens the flow of all-important foreign aid and donor support to the poverty-stricken nation. Furthermore, it overshadows the positive economic developments including expansion of the coffee sector and promising exploration activity in hydrocarbons.

Ethiopia faces a host of political challenges brought on by ethnic tensions. The stand-off with Eritrea is only one example of the way historical ethnic tension has continued to play a role in present day Ethiopian society. Other ethnically driven confrontations – in the Ogaden region and Somalia, and among the Omoro, and the Amhara – appear equally difficult to resolve, if less likely to lead to major war. We see little scope for substantial improvement in the medium term, which leaves the government limited space to address the long-term problem of sustaining economic growth, essential for overcoming endemic poverty.

Ethiopia's economy has been growing steadily since 2003, aided by favourable weather conditions and a recovery in the agricultural sector. This positive performance is set to continue thanks to promising developments in many of the country's export sectors. Coffee – which accounts for approximately 33% of the country's exports by value – is particularly promising. Burgeoning activity in hydrocarbons exploration poses substantial upside risk to Ethiopia's export revenues in the years to come. We expect continued deterioration of Ethiopia's fiscal position toward 2009 due to heavy military spending and inadequate tax collection. Inflationary pressures remain strong, and we believe single-digit inflation will not be achieved until 2012.

The Ethiopian authorities have made serious headway in improving investor sentiment in recent years, with a market-oriented economic policy, a liberal investment law, and efficient service delivery by the Ethiopian Investment Commission, the main body that deals with foreign investors. Serious weaknesses remain in the business environment, however. The judiciary is generally inadequate and lacking in independence and corruption remains problematic. The many conflicts ongoing pose notable security risk to businesses operating in the country, although the unrest has generally been limited to specific regions. Despite shortcomings in the business environment, many companies continue to operate in Ethiopia, drawn by mineral wealth potential.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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