Hong Kong Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Hong Kong market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hong Kong and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Hong Kong's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Hong Kong Business Forecast Report | Hong Kong's Political Outlook | Hong Kong's Economic Outlook | Hong Kong's Business Environment | Key Hong Kong Industry Sectors | Hong Kong BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Hong Kong Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Hong Kong's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Hong Kong, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Hong Kong's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Hong Kong's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Hong Kong's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hong Kong, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Hong Kong's Political Outlook, Hong Kong's Economic Outlook, Hong Kong's Business Environment and Hong Kong's Key Industry Sectors.

Hong Kong's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Hong Kong over the next 5 years?

BMI's Hong Kong Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Hong Kong Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Hong Kong Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Hong Kong.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Hong Kong
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Hong Kong's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Hong Kong
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Hong Kong government, assessing threats to the continuity of Hong Kong economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Hong Kong Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Hong Kong's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Hong Kong's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Hong Kong, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Hong Kong government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Hong Kong's Economic Outlook:

How will Hong Kong economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Hong Kong through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Hong Kong growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Hong Kong Economic Outlook Contents

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Hong Kong, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Hong Kong government views. Underpinning our Hong Kong forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Hong Kong

  • Economic Activity in Hong Kong
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Hong Kong
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Hong Kong
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Hong Kong; Hong Kong currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Hong Kong
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Hong Kong
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Hong Kong External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Hong Kong and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Hong Kong database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Hong Kong government economic policy

Hong Kong's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Hong Kong's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Business Environment Contents

  • Hong Kong's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Hong Kong, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Hong Kong
    Competitiveness of Hong Kong's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Hong Kong's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Hong Kong
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Hong Kong
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Hong Kong's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Hong Kong will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Hong Kong's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Hong Kong's Key Industry Sectors - Hong Kong Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Hong Kong
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Hong Kong; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Hong Kong
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Hong Kong's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Hong Kong's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Hong Kong.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" We find the Risks Rating section the most interesting, due to the useful content and its ability to evaluate scenarios and events, which helps us to reinforce our strategic plan. "
General Manager, Yantai Agrati Fasteners Co., Ltd, China.

BMI's Executive Summary for Hong Kong

[TOP]

Private Consumption Both A Problem And Solution

Economic momentum slowed in Q307, in line with our expectations, as export growth decelerated on the back of softening external demand. After growing 6.6% y-o-y in Q207, Hong Kong's economy slowed to 6.2% in Q307, and with the US consumer market expected to experience further downside going forward, we anticipate this trend to remain in place in Q407. However, strong demand from China and robust growth in exports of services will help keep Hong Kong's external sector supported, and with private consumption expected to remain buoyant, we are forecasting economic growth to remain above 6.0% in 2008, as domestic demand compensates for an anticipated downturn in merchandise exports. However, beyond 2008, we are forecasting growth to slow, to 5.2% in 2009 and to 4.9% in 2010, as the territory's domestic demand consumption boom subsides.

Victory for the Democratic Party's candidate, Anson Chan, in the by-election to fill the vacant seat in Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Legco) on December 2 has revitalised the territory's pro-democracy camp ahead of Legco elections in 2008. This symbolic win has gone some way to restoring the damage dealt to the Democratic Party following heavy defeats to its Beijing-backed opponents in November's district council elections, and has boosted hopes among the party of reviving the ailing democracy debate in Hong Kong. However, with the Legco currently dominated by pro-Beijing members, swift reforms still remain a distant prospect.

Despite the Hang Seng's bull run coming to an end, inflationary pressures still continue to build in Hong Kong. Consumer price growth leapt 1.6pp in October 2007 to a near six-year high of 3.2% y-o-y, as a waiver on property rates ended and food prices surged. Food inflation came in at a massive 11.9% y-o-y, but with food only accounting for 10% of households' expenditure, a more pressing issue remains that of rising property prices. We expect higher house prices to continue to be a key driver of inflation, along with continuing strong private consumption, and as such are forecasting average inflation to climb to 2.8% in 2008.

Hong Kong has retained third place in our recently updated business environment ratings after seeing its overall rating improve from 81.3 to 82.2. However, the city state still lags behind regional competitor Singapore, which once again came in top of the class with a rating of 83.8. Nonetheless, Hong Kong did preserve its pole position in the market orientation sub category as its openness rating rose from 91.4 to 99.3, and also made further progress towards securing its role as the region's financial services hub as its financial infrastructure rating climbed to 95.0 from 86.9.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.