Hungary Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Hungary Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Hungary. The Hungary Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Hungarian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hungary and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Hungary's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Hungary Business Forecast Report | Hungary's Political Outlook | Hungary's Economic Outlook | Hungary's Business Environment | Key Hungary Industry Sectors | Hungary BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Hungary Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Hungary's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Hungary, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Hungary's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Hungary's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Hungary's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hungary, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Hungary Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Hungary's Political Outlook, Hungary's Economic Outlook, Hungary's Business Environment and Hungary's Key Industry Sectors.

Hungary's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Hungary over the next 5 years?

BMI's Hungary Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Hungary Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Hungarian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Hungary.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Hungary
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Hungary's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Hungary
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Hungarian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Hungarian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Hungarian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Hungary's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Hungary's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Hungary, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Hungarian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Hungary's Economic Outlook:

How will Hungarian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Hungary through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Hungarian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Hungary Economic Outlook Contents

The Hungary Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Hungary, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Hungarian government views. Underpinning our Hungary forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Hungary

  • Economic Activity in Hungary
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Hungary
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Hungary
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Hungary; Hungarian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Hungary
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Hungary
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Hungarian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Hungary and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Hungary database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Hungarian government economic policy

Hungary's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Hungary's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Hungary.

Hungary Business Environment Contents

  • Hungary's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Hungary, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Hungary
    Competitiveness of Hungary's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Hungary's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Hungary
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Hungary
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Hungary's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Hungary will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Hungarian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Hungary's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Hungary's Key Industry Sectors - Hungarian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Hungary
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Hungary; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Hungary
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Hungary's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Hungary's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Hungary Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Hungary.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

" The most useful section for my company is the Central Economic Forecast as well as the Key Economic Sectors as I can review all the analyses of the Hungarian government and central bank. Having a different perspective is always useful. "
Director of Finance, Wienerberger Teglaipari Rt, Hungary.

BMI's Executive Summary for Hungary

[TOP]

Fiscal Tightening: The Aftershock

In the Hungary Business Forecast Report Q108 we evaluate the effects of austere fiscal tightening measures both on the economy and the political standing of the ruling Socialist Party. While the party's popularity continues to trail the main opposition party Fidesz, we believe that a forecast uptick in growth by 2009 may still come in time to save the ruling Socialist-led coalition government from being defeated in the 2010 elections. That said, we are especially concerned about Hungary's declining regional competitiveness, and the long-term effects of low levels of government expenditure on the economy. Deep spending cuts and higher burdens on consumers have caused household indebtedness to jump, raising Hungary's overall external debt stock. As such, the performance of overall economic activity is becoming increasingly exposed to external volatility, such as medium-term downside risks for the Hungarian forint and a decline in eurozone growth, which will weigh on external demand for the country's exports – the key driver of growth.

Latest opinion polls suggest that Fidesz continues to widen its lead over the Socialists, garnering some 34% of the vote in the latest Tarki poll, compared to 16% for the Socialists. We attribute the widening gap in opinion polls to the highly unpopular austere fiscal measures introduced in 2006, amid a ballooning budget deficit of 9.2% of GDP in 2006. Such measures have included higher taxes on labour and deep public spending cuts, which have seen prices rise in the service sector (particularly public transport), as previous subsidy programmes have been abandoned. Moreover, allegations of corruption among Socialist Party officials are unlikely to improve the party's chances of reversing its poor popularity any time soon.

Looking at GDP by expenditure, government consumption in H107 remained below the H106 level, rapidly declining by 7.6% in Q107 and 2.7% in Q207. Considering that government consumption is expected to account for almost 10% of GDP in 2007, real GDP growth in H107 came in at a lacklustre 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), on the back of an 11-year low in GDP growth of 1.2% y-o-y during the second quarter of 2007. This is a massive slowdown compared to 3.7% y-o-y growth during the same period a year earlier. However, with government efforts to rein in the enormous budget deficit increasingly bearing fruit, we expect government spending programmes to resume during the latter part of 2008, which should help stimulate the economy throughout subsequent quarters.

Austrian gas and oil company OMV has raised its bid for its Hungarian counterpart MOL, offering HUF32,000 per share. MOL has complained that at US$20bn, OMV is undervaluing its company and has launched a share buy-back programme to counter the bid. OMV holds a 20% share in MOL, with the Austrian government owning 31.5% of OMV. This may trigger a response from the Hungarian government, which is currently trying to push through a law limiting part or whole ownership of domestic energy companies by foreign firms. In the meantime, we are expecting the takeover row to continue, keeping the Hungarian BUX equity index buoyed, having already risen by 7.1% since September 10, on the back of a 11.5% jump in MOL's share price.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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