India Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The India Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in India. The India Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Indian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in India and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of India's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the India Business Forecast Report | India's Political Outlook | India's Economic Outlook | India's Business Environment | Key India Industry Sectors | India BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the India Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of India's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in India, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of India's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise India's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in India's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in India, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The India Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: India's Political Outlook, India's Economic Outlook, India's Business Environment and India's Key Industry Sectors.

India's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in India over the next 5 years?

BMI's India Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

India Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Indian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing India.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for India
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for India's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in India
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Indian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Indian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Indian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in India's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark India's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in India, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Indian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

India's Economic Outlook:

How will Indian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for India through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Indian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

India Economic Outlook Contents

The India Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for India, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Indian government views. Underpinning our India forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in India

  • Economic Activity in India
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in India
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in India
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in India; Indian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in India
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in India
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Indian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for India and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic India database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Indian government economic policy

India's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is India's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in India.

India Business Environment Contents

  • India's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for India, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for India
    Competitiveness of India's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in India's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in India
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with India
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

India's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in India will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Indian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in India's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of India's Key Industry Sectors - Indian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in India
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in India; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for India
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in India's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in India's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The India Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in India.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" The most useful part is the Central Economic Forecast. It helps us in evaluating the future prospects for the country, as well as the likely trends on the per Capita Income, which would reflect the spending power for the consumers. "
Procter & Gamble, Sri Lanka.

BMI's Executive Summary for India

[TOP]

The Growing Political Problem

Although we forecast that the growth momentum of Asia's second largest economy will subside, it is still expected to remain robust. If growth for FY2007/08 reaches the central bank's forecast 8.5% expansion rate, this will only be marginally below the 8.6% average achieved over the past four years. Inflation remains the biggest threat to this outlook, and supply-side factors, if not dealt with appropriately, will render these growth rates unsustainable. Unfortunately, infighting between groups in the United Progressive Alliance, India's ruling coalition, threatens to prevent any meaningful reform from taking place. Its communist allies have already hampered many of the government's privatisation plans, which the prime minister sees as crucial to boosting GDP growth to 10%, and are necessary to lift millions of the country's poor above the poverty line. Continuing down this path would, in effect, render the Congress Party a lame-duck administration, unable to push through any far-sighted reform measures during its current term.

Following a protracted wrangling between India's ruling Congress Party and its communist allies, the India-US civilian nuclear energy agreement appears to be on its last legs. This is a major setback for Premier Singh, who has staked his reputation on this 'historic' landmark deal and who, by succumbing to the left's demands in order to avoid early elections, has severely impaired his credibility. The next 18 months could see the Indian National Congress kowtowing to its allies until the 2009 elections, when only a stronger showing in parliament would allow it to reduce its reliance on the left.

India's economy expanded by an impressive 9.3% y-o-y in Q1 FY2007/08 (April-March), buoyed by strong growth in manufacturing and services, which have fuelled inflation concerns. However, the recent global credit crunch and a strong rupee mean that the central bank will hold off on hiking interest rates any further for the time being. On the whole it appears as though economic growth will begin to moderate in the coming quarters. This is because we expect a tight monetary policy to eventually impact on demand. However, given the positive spillover effects of last year's robust growth rate of 9.4%, we do acknowledge upside risks to our 8.2% growth forecast for FY07/08.

The rapidly proliferating and much heralded business prospects arising from India masks a fundamental development flaw facing the country. Despite a steady increase in inward investment flows, our data points to deterioration in the region's overall business environment, which has suffered because of policy decisions that favour short-term investment strategies at the expense of longer-term goals. The latter would require a marked improvement in infrastructure development. This trend is a concern as it threatens to accelerate the widening trend of regional disparity and, consequently, India's business environment rating has been revised down to 39.8 from 40.6 previously.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.