Indonesia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Indonesia. The Indonesia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Indonesian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Indonesia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Indonesia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Indonesia Business Forecast Report | Indonesia's Political Outlook | Indonesia's Economic Outlook | Indonesia's Business Environment | Key Indonesia Industry Sectors | Indonesia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Indonesia Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Indonesia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Indonesia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Indonesia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Indonesia's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Indonesia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Indonesia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Indonesia's Political Outlook, Indonesia's Economic Outlook, Indonesia's Business Environment and Indonesia's Key Industry Sectors.

Indonesia's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Indonesia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Indonesia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Indonesia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Indonesian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Indonesia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Indonesia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Indonesia's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Indonesia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Indonesian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Indonesian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Indonesian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Indonesia's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Indonesia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Indonesia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Indonesian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Indonesia's Economic Outlook:

How will Indonesian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Indonesia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Indonesian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Indonesia Economic Outlook Contents

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Indonesia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Indonesian government views. Underpinning our Indonesia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Indonesia

  • Economic Activity in Indonesia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Indonesia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Indonesia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Indonesia; Indonesian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Indonesia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Indonesian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Indonesia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Indonesia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Indonesian government economic policy

Indonesia's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Indonesia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Indonesia.

Indonesia Business Environment Contents

  • Indonesia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Indonesia, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Indonesia
    Competitiveness of Indonesia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Indonesia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Indonesia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Indonesia's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Indonesia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Indonesian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Indonesia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Indonesia's Key Industry Sectors - Indonesian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Indonesia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Indonesia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Indonesia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Indonesia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Indonesia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Indonesia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

"I am interested in the Central Economic Forecast section because there is a lot of useful insight for looking forward. It has become my “compass” to do something or in recomending something."
Business Analyst, PT. Sinar Sosro, Indonesia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Indonesia

[TOP]

Favourable Economic Policies Spur Growth

Indonesia looks set to achieve a 6.2% annual growth rate in 2007, which would be the fastest expansion in a decade. The economy has been elevated to a higher growth path thanks to the government's commitment to weeding out corruption and fostering a more business friendly environment. Moreover, the country's higher growth rate is attributable to the aggressive expansionary monetary policy adopted by the central bank over the past 18 months, which is seeing a recovery in household consumption and investment. In 2008, the economy is expected to maintain its momentum, buoyed by further monetary easing and an expansionary fiscal policy. In all, Indonesia's growth prospects are indeed improving. That said, corruption, a weak legal system and tough labour laws remain deterrents to significantly higher FDI growth rates and infrastructure development strategies which would allow the economy to meet its full growth potential.

Foreign relations with its neighbours have historically always been on shaky ground and in this regard, little has changed over the past year. Positively, however, the November 2007 landslide victory of Kevin Rudd as Australia's new prime minister, which gave John Howard's Liberal Party its worst defeat in its 63 year history, signals a turning point in Indonesian-Australian politics. Indeed, considering that Rudd's Labor party has traditionally experienced warmer relations with its Southeast Asian neighbour, there is a strong sense of hope that bilateral economic and cultural relations will improve. Indeed, it seems foreign policy is the one area where the difference between Rudd and his predecessor is most striking.

Political uncertainty will grow as the 2009 general elections approach, which will in turn hamper investment and consumer spending. This will, in our view, outweigh the anticipated increase in government spending, leading to slower economic growth in the year. In 2009, therefore, we see growth slowing to 5.7% (from 6.1% in 2008), around which level it will remain for the rest of our forecast period. The central bank will be able to add little support, as 2008 may be the last chance for Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates before the expansionary cycle drives inflation higher prior to the 2009 general election.

Indonesia's business environment score has shown mild deterioration following the implementation of our new business environment ratings methodology. It now scores 40.2, compared with 40.6 previously, due primarily to a worsening of its infrastructure sub-rating. The country scores 32.6 in this category, down from 40.5 earlier, while its institutions score has risen to 22.5 (from 17.9) and its market-orientation rating has increased to 65.5 (from 63.3). The overall decline in Indonesia's rating comes at a time when the overall business environment within Asia has deteriorated and the disparity between the best and worst performing countries has widened.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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Company Research
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