Iran Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Iran Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Iran. The Iran Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Iranian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Iran and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Iran's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Iran Business Forecast Report | Iran's Political Outlook | Iran's Economic Outlook | Iran's Business Environment | Key Iran Industry Sectors | Iran BMI's Executive Summary | Our Middle East Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Iran Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Iran's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Iran, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Iran's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Iran's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Iran's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Iran, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Iran Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Iran's Political Outlook, Iran's Economic Outlook, Iran's Business Environment and Iran's Key Industry Sectors.

Iran's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Iran over the next 5 years?

BMI's Iran Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Iran Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Iranian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Iran.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Iran
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Iran's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Iran
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Iranian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Iranian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Iranian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Iran's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Iran's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Iran, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Iranian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Iran's Economic Outlook:

How will Iranian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Iran through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Iranian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Iran Economic Outlook Contents

The Iran Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Iran, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Iranian government views. Underpinning our Iran forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Iran

  • Economic Activity in Iran
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Iran
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Iran
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Iran; Iranian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Iran
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Iran
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Iranian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Iran and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Iran database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Iranian government economic policy

Iran's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Iran's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Iran.

Iran Business Environment Contents

  • Iran's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Iran, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Iran
    Competitiveness of Iran's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Iran's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Iran
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Iran
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Iran's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Iran will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Iranian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Iran's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Iran's Key Industry Sectors - Iranian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Iran
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Iran; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Iran
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Iran's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Iran's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The Iran Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Iran.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" We find the Key Economic Forecast section helps our business to create near-future strategies, and the risk rating sections are always good indicators for planning future company activity. "
Assistant To GM, Bosch Sanayi Ve Ticaret A.S., Turkey.

BMI's Executive Summary for Iran

[TOP]

Imprudent Macro Management Still Taints Outlook

With both the US and Iranian administrations under pressure domestically and externally, the likelihood of a military conflict erupting remains small. The president of Iran has come under increasing pressure due to his poor handling of the economy, while many in the regime appear to be displeased with Iran's increasing isolation in the international arena. At the same time, the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan continue to dog the White House. These dynamics, and the recent flurry of diplomatic activity including unprecedented talks between Iran and the US over Iraq, should work against a new military campaign. However, the danger is that hard-liners on both sides could provoke a crisis that puts an end to diplomacy.

The domestic power struggle between Iran's various factions is set to continue. The ascendancy of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, deemed a conservative pragmatist, to the leadership of the Assembly of Experts – a body that chooses and can theoretically remove the Supreme Leader – is an encouraging sign. Already the head of another powerful body, the Expediency Council, the appointment considerably expands Rafsanjani's power base and could also increase his influence over domestic and foreign policies. The new leader is a stern critic of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, against whom he stood in the 2005 polls, and has been a proponent of talks with the major powers and more liberal economics. While the president's hard-line camp are likely to resist an expansion of Rafsanjani's influence, the power struggle between the factions in the Iranian regime is likely to intensify, possibly leading to contradictory stances being adopted more often.

Imprudent macroeconomic management and international and US sanctions will continue to take a toll on the economy, which is expected to expand by 5.3% in real terms in 2007. The ousting of three economy ministry employees, who were critical of the administration's handling of the economy, and the president's decision to order another cut in interest rates are two examples of the worsening trajectory of policymaking. While oil export revenues are providing a healthy cushion, funding the government's spending spree, which is keeping growth elevated, this is by no means a sustainable course over the longer term.

The business environment continues to be dogged by the uncertain political backdrop. For example, while Iran holds the world's second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, with proven reserves of 137.5bn bbl in 2006 (BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2007) and produced 4.3mn barrels of oil per day (b/d) in 2006, which is slightly above previous estimates, it needs to import refined products in order to meet rising domestic demand, with gasoline consumption growing at around 9% per year. However, given UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and the US unilateral financial squeeze, it is becoming harder for Iran to attract the investment or attain the technology to invest in its ageing fields. We do not see a change in these trends until there is a marked improvement in the political situation.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.