Iraq Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Iraq Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Iraq. The Iraq Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Iraqi market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Iraq and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Iraq's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Iraq Business Forecast Report | Iraq's Political Outlook | Iraq's Economic Outlook | Iraq's Business Environment | Key Iraq Industry Sectors | Iraq BMI's Executive Summary | Our Middle East Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Iraq Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Iraq's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Iraq, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Iraq's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Iraq's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Iraq's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Iraq, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Iraq Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Iraq's Political Outlook, Iraq's Economic Outlook, Iraq's Business Environment and Iraq's Key Industry Sectors.

Iraq's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Iraq over the next 5 years?

BMI's Iraq Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Iraq Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Iraqi Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Iraq.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Iraq
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Iraq's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Iraq
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Iraqi government, assessing threats to the continuity of Iraqi economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Iraqi Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Iraq's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Iraq's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Iraq, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Iraqi government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Iraq's Economic Outlook:

How will Iraqi economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Iraq through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Iraqi growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Iraq Economic Outlook Contents

The Iraq Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Iraq, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Iraqi government views. Underpinning our Iraq forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Iraq

  • Economic Activity in Iraq
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Iraq
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Iraq
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Iraq; Iraqi currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Iraq
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Iraq
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Iraqi External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Iraq and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Iraq database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Iraqi government economic policy

Iraq's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Iraq's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Iraq.

Iraq Business Environment Contents

  • Iraq's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Iraq, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Iraq
    Competitiveness of Iraq's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Iraq's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Iraq
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Iraq
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Iraq's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Iraq will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Iraqi market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Iraq's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Iraq's Key Industry Sectors - Iraqi Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Iraq
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Iraq; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Iraq
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Iraq's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Iraq's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The Iraq Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Iraq.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

"All sections of the report are equally valuable. They contain the right level of detail, are easy to read, and give a lot of insight into economies' strengths and weaknesses."
Business Intelligence Manager, Schneider Electric KSA, Saudi Arabia.

BMI's Executive Summary for Iraq

[TOP]

Turning The Corner?

Few now dispute that violence levels are sharply down in the wake of the US surge strategy. The worst of the sectarian bloodshed may be over, though this could depend on the continued presence of large numbers of multinational force troops over a number of years. The change in atmosphere could lead to a change in political strategy in Iraq. In the US, Iraq has noticeably slid down the agenda, as US troop deaths subside. There is less political mileage to be gained from focusing on the Bush administration's Iraq problems. Instead, policy makers are mulling over new strategies for consolidating recent gains.

One possible option would see greater focus on developing regional institutions, which are deemed to have proved more successful than those at the national level. 'Soft partition' is being given serious thought in Washington and in the Green Zone. On the other hand, there is still a residual confidence in the al-Maliki government, despite its abject failure to meet key benchmarks. There will be more emphasis on the achievements of the army, for example. Reconciliation efforts may gain some kind of traction in 2008 at the US's behest, based on the relative success of the USSunni alliance in Anbar province.

Border skirmishes involving Turkish troops and PKK rebels have the potential to unravel security gains, but the possibility of a grand-scale Turkish invasion of the Kurdish north is overstated. We expect a political deal will forestall such an eventuality, given Ankara's underlying reluctance to commit to such a risky venture as an invasion. More troubling for northern Iraq's security is the uncertain status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. This was due to be resolved by end-2007, but will remain a source of tension through 2008.

There is even some better economic news to report. Oil prices are above US$90/bbl, and despite volatility, will deliver a substantial boost to the country's finances. Iraq's hydrocarbons-based economy will feel the positive medium-term impact through 2008, even if crude production levels continue to miss their targets. BMI forecasts that oil production will increase to 2.3mn b/d in 2008, with exports looking better than at any time since Saddam Hussein's ousting. This will support an improved economic growth performance in 2008, with northern Iraqi exports finally appearing to be growing at a steady pace. Another positive is the government's improved absorptive capacity. Project implementation rates have improved, allowing the government to spend a greater proportion of its income on economically productive projects.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

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