Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria. The Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report | Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Political Outlook | Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Economic Outlook | Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Business Environment | Key Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Industry Sectors | Jordan, Lebanon & Syria BMI's Executive Summary | Our Middle East Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Political Outlook, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Economic Outlook, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Business Environment and Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Key Industry Sectors.

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria over the next 5 years?

BMI's Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Jordan, Lebanon & Syria.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Economic Outlook:

How will Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Economic Outlook Contents

The Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian government views. Underpinning our Jordan, Lebanon & Syria forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria

  • Economic Activity in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria; Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Jordan, Lebanon & Syria database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian government economic policy

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria.

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Environment Contents

  • Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, benchmarked against ratings for Middle East and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Competitiveness of Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's Key Industry Sectors - Jordanian, Lebanese & Syrian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Jordan, Lebanon & Syria.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" The Risk Ratings section and the Economic Forecasts help us decide on strategic investment decisions. When investing in our brands we need to be certain that this can be sustained over a long term. By understanding risks and forecasts we can better make these decisions. "
Sales Manager, Kellogg, United Arab Emirates.

BMI's Executive Summary for Jordan, Lebanon & Syria

[TOP]

Another Eventful Year Ahead

Looking in detail at what our recently updated business environment ratings tell us about the East Med region, the picture is not greatly changed as we move into 2008. As with our previous ratings, Israel is well ahead of the crowd, while Syria languishes near the bottom, with only the West Bank and Gaza to cushion it from last place. The country falls behind thanks to its scores in the institutions (39.6) and infrastructure (34.4) components. Jordan is the top scorer of the three covered in this publication, with a score of 59 .9, having excelled in the category of FDI. Lebanon's score has predictably fallen since we launched our ratings, but remains relatively respectable at 50.9. Our main worries now fall into the infrastructure category, predominantly physical and human. An educated workforce has been one of Lebanon's strengths in the past, but recent political developments have caused an exodus among professionals to the Gulf and Europe.

For Jordan the economic picture over the next five years is good, with growth remaining above 4% annually and CPI forecast to slow down to 3% y-o-y by 2012. This strong performance – which is buoyed by FDI inflows and increased government spending – is reflected in the Kingdom's short term economic risk rating of 60.4. In the political sphere, we expect supporters of King Abdullah II to retain their majority in parliament following parliamentary polls which will have already been decided by the time this report is printed. This result is likely to add to stability and put upward pressure on Jordan's short-term political risk rating of 76 .7 but the limited democratic freedom expected for the poll will do little to improve Jordan's long-term score of 69.6.

The outlook remains somewhat bleak for Lebanon, and as we go to print the country had little hope of agreeing on as consensus candidate for the presidency – a best case scenario we put forward in our last Business Forecast Report. This ongoing stagnation and lack of a functional government will feed through to the political, economic and business spheres, further undermining investor confidence in Lebanon. While resilient sectors such as banking, alongside government spending, will keep growth just about in positive territory, we do not see the country achieving its economic potential – or even resolving structural issues like the 186% of GDP public debt burden – any time soon.

Syria's economy looks set to suffer as a result of a decline in the oil sector with growth forecast to slowdown to 1.1% in 2012 and the budget deficit likely to stay high – over 5% of GDP – as oil revenues fall. This trend will be offset by a growing non-oil sector but this development will be limited in its influence on the overall economy. On the political side, Syria scores well in our short and long-term political risk ratings, attaining 74 .6 and 63 .2 respectively. We do not believe that the recent crisis with Israel, following an Israeli incursion, will lead to any prolonged conflict.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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