Kazakhstan & Central Asia Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Kazakhstan & Central Asia. The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report (covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) helps businesses with Kazakh & Central Asian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kazakhstan & Central Asia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Kazakhstan & Central Asia's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report | Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Political Outlook | Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Economic Outlook | Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Business Environment | Key Kazakhstan & Central Asia Industry Sectors | Kazakhstan & Central Asia BMI's Executive Summary | Our Europe Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report

Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Kazakhstan & Central Asia's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Kazakhstan & Central Asia, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Kazakhstan & Central Asia's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Kazakhstan & Central Asia's country risks against Europe regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Kazakhstan & Central Asia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Political Outlook, Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Economic Outlook, Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Business Environment and Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Key Industry Sectors.

Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Political Outlook:

Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

What are the political risks to doing business in Kazakhstan & Central Asia over the next 5 years?

BMI's Kazakhstan & Central Asia Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Kazakhstan & Central Asia Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Kazakh & Central Asian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Kazakhstan & Central Asia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Kazakhstan & Central Asia's risk are compared with Europe regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Kazakh & Central Asian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Kazakh & Central Asian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Kazakh & Central Asian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's foreign relations and alignments with Europe neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Kazakhstan & Central Asia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Kazakhstan & Central Asia, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Kazakh & Central Asian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Economic Outlook:

Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

How will Kazakh & Central Asian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Kazakhstan & Central Asia through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Kazakh & Central Asian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Kazakhstan & Central Asia Economic Outlook Contents

The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Kazakhstan & Central Asia, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Kazakh & Central Asian government views. Underpinning our Kazakhstan & Central Asia forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Kazakhstan & Central Asia

  • Economic Activity in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Kazakhstan & Central Asia; Kazakh & Central Asian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Kazakh & Central Asian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Kazakhstan & Central Asia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Kazakhstan & Central Asia database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Kazakh & Central Asian government economic policy

Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Business Environment:

Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

How internationally competitive is Kazakhstan & Central Asia's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Kazakhstan & Central Asia.

Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Environment Contents

  • Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Kazakhstan & Central Asia, benchmarked against ratings for Europe and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Competitiveness of Kazakhstan & Central Asia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Key Industry Sectors

Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Which industry sectors in Kazakhstan & Central Asia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Kazakh & Central Asian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Kazakhstan & Central Asia's Key Industry Sectors - Kazakh & Central Asian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Kazakhstan & Central Asia; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Kazakhstan & Central Asia
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Kazakhstan & Central Asia's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Europe Business Forecast Reports?

The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Kazakhstan & Central Asia.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

Abbott International, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel, Alpha Cement Group, Atlas Copco, BASF, British American Tobacco Company, Coca-Cola HBC, Colgate Palmolive Romania, Deloitte & Touche, Ericsson Telecommunications Bulgaria Ltd, Ernst & Young, Exxonmobil Ltd, Heineken Brewery, Hewlett- Packard Slovakia, S.r.o, Indesit Company, Microsoft Software, Novartis Pharma Services Inc, Omnitel, Opus Land Development SA, Provident Financial, Raiffeisen Bank, Robert Bosch Elektronika Kft., Siemens Srl, Xerox Ltd 

 

"The Risk Rating sections of the report provides a swift means of seeing where things have changed. It allows a quick initial evaluation without having to go into the details at that stage. A focused approach can then be taken to understanding the variations by review of the specific details."
Int. Development Manger, Lloyds Register EMEA, UAE.

BMI's Executive Summary for Kazakhstan

[TOP]

Infrastructure To Remain A Problem

Underdeveloped infrastructure and persisting high levels of long-term political risk remains the core theme in Central Asia. While most Central Asian economies are set to experience high levels of economic growth over the coming years, bar Kyrgyzstan, we caution that a lack of investment into infrastructure may eventually hamper further growth prospects and improvements to the business environment. In the Kazakhstan and Central Asia Q108 Business Forecast Report, we take a closer look at the main vulnerabilities of the Central Asian economies to external shocks. Moreover, we explore how reaffirmed political mandates will impact the respective countries' overall policy direction going forward. We highlight that on one hand, stronger political mandates will be supportive of reform-oriented policies, however, we warn that over the long term, a lack of institution building threatens a sharp reversal in policy direction, should a sudden transfer of power occur.

Over the next few years, we expect Turkmenistan to continue to pursue market-friendly reforms for foreign investors and improve the Central Asian state's relations with the international community. Indications that Turkmenistan remains open to explore new alternative transit routes for natural gas exports to the EU are certainly encouraging, and suggest that President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov remains committed to diversifying the Turkmen economy away from Russia. Similarly, the Turkmen leader appears to have endorsed proposals by Turkey to allocate natural gas exports via Iran to Turkey, enabling the three countries to assume a transit role for Western energy needs.

The government of Kazakhstan has revised down its 2008 real GDP growth forecast from a previous 9.0% to between 5-7% as the international credit squeeze continues to threaten Kazakhstan's growth prospects in the medium term. This comes on the back of a highly leveraged banking sector, which has been particularly hard hit by the international credit crisis, prompting President Nursultan Nazarbayev to order the government to put aside some US$4bn in state funds to support the economy. We have been highlighting that secondary effects from the credit squeeze fallout will likely weigh on Kazakhstan's economic growth outlook. Indeed, while leaving our 2007 growth forecast of 9.2% unchanged amid robust real GDP growth of 10.4% y-o-y during the first three quarters of the year, we too have revised down our 2008 growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 8.0% (from 9.1%) on the back of a sharp slowdown in credit growth in the economy.

The business environment in Central Asia remains one of the key drags upon economic growth. This is reflected in our propriety business environment ratings. Out of the 167 countries that we rate, four states within the region fall within the bottom quartile: Kyrgyzstan (143rd), Tajikistan (149th), Turkmenistan (155th) and Uzbekistan (157th). One of the most fundamental problems facing all of these states is poor infrastructure, especially in the transport sector, which in turn impacts upon other indicators in our index including access to healthcare, schooling and finance, corruption, as well as FDI inflows.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
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