Mexico Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Mexico Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Mexico. The Mexico Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Mexican market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mexico and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Mexico's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Mexico Business Forecast Report | Mexico's Political Outlook | Mexico's Economic Outlook | Mexico's Business Environment | Key Mexico Industry Sectors | Mexico BMI's Executive Summary | Our North and South America Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Mexico Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Mexico's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Mexico, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Mexico's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Mexico's country risks against North and South America regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Mexico's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Mexico, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Mexico Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Mexico's Political Outlook, Mexico's Economic Outlook, Mexico's Business Environment and Mexico's Key Industry Sectors.

Mexico's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Mexico over the next 5 years?

BMI's Mexico Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Mexico Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Mexican Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Mexico.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Mexico
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Mexico's risk are compared with North and South America regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Mexico
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Mexican government, assessing threats to the continuity of Mexican economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Mexican Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Mexico's foreign relations and alignments with North and South America neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Mexico's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Mexico, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Mexican government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Mexico's Economic Outlook:

How will Mexican economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Mexico through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Mexican growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Mexico Economic Outlook Contents

The Mexico Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Mexico, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Mexican government views. Underpinning our Mexico forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Mexico

  • Economic Activity in Mexico
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Mexico
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Mexico
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Mexico; Mexican currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Mexico
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Mexican External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Mexico and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Mexico database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Mexican government economic policy

Mexico's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Mexico's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Mexico.

Mexico Business Environment Contents

  • Mexico's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Mexico, benchmarked against ratings for North and South America and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Mexico
    Competitiveness of Mexico's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Mexico's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Mexico
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Mexico's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Mexico will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Mexican market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Mexico's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Mexico's Key Industry Sectors - Mexican Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Mexico
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Mexico; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Mexico
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Mexico's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Mexico's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the North and South America Business Forecast Reports?

The Mexico Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Mexico.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

ABB Mexico, SA de CV, American Express Argentina, American Honda Motor Co Inc, Ansa Technologies Ltd, Antigua Commercial Bank, ATCO Structures Inc, Atlas Copco Chilena, Banco de Mexico, BASF Interservicios SA de CV, Bristol Myers Squibb, Carl Zeiss de Mexico SA de CV, Chrysler LLC, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colgate-Palmolive CA, Glaxosmithkline Chile Ltda, Hyatt International, Lafarge SA, Levi Strauss Mexico, Merck SA, Merrill Lynch - Brazil, Siemens S.A. de C.V., Sony Ericsson, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever Caribbean, West Indies Oil Company 

 

" We use this report in order to get an insightful overview of the economic environment of a specific country as well as others within the region. "
Marketing Manager, Casa Marzam SA de CV, Mexico.

BMI's Executive Summary for Mexico

[TOP]

Government Seizing The Initiative

Since assuming leadership in December last year, President Felipe Calderón has led a renaissance in Mexico's reform drive. The current administration has managed to forge a working alliance with the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), and there are signs that relations with the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) may be thawing following 2006's controversial election aftermath. The successful passage of public pension reform, and the approval of a landmark fiscal reform bill, is testament to the government's political achievements thus far. Meanwhile, the economy has stalled, and a recovery could take longer than previously anticipated. We have downwardly revised our year-end real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.6%, as a less accommodative external backdrop (particular in the US) weighs on Mexican economic performance. The major challenges ahead lie in reducing Mexico's overarching dependence on the US and oil export receipts, and improving efficiency and productivity in the export sector in the face of increasing competition from East Asian rivals.

As pointed out above, Calderón has already managed to inject new life into the reform agenda – a feat that his predecessor Vicente Fox failed to achieve during his entire presidency. Having said that, we believe that an overhaul of the state-owned energy sector is still an unlikely scenario, and it is important that the government does not try to overreach in its long-term objectives. On the security front, a series of explosions on strategic oil and gas pipelines of late, which were allegedly carried out by the leftist rebel group, Ejército Popular Revolucionario, were a timely reminder that the government still does not enjoy popular support across the board.

We expect real GDP growth to slow to 3.1% this year (from 4.8% in 2006), and US growth to fall to 2.0%, from 3.3% in 2006. Mexican exports have started to feel the pinch of lower external demand, while retail sales and economic activity indicators have disappointed of late. From a medium-term standpoint, however, the economy remains on the right road to achieving sustainable growth, with long-term inflation expectations well anchored. The US factor will remain a key risk to the economy, as will the vulnerability of the external and fiscal accounts to a drop in international energy prices and the anticipated decline in domestic oil production.

Although steadily improving, Mexico's overall score of 54.8 in BMI's business environment ratings is some way off regional benchmark Chile's score of 71.2. The main shortcomings are focussed within the 'institutions' category. The process of opening and closing businesses in Mexico remains time consuming and bogged down in red tape. There is scope for muted optimism, however. The fiscal reforms introduced by President Felipe Calderón in September should help to simplify a complicated corporate income tax code by reducing the number of payments required and the time taken to prepare, file and pay taxes.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

Middle East and Africa

Angola, Bahrain, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kenya, Kuwait, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Turkey, UAE, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.