Nigeria Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Nigeria Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Nigeria. The Nigeria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Nigerian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Nigeria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Nigeria's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Nigeria Business Forecast Report | Nigeria's Political Outlook | Nigeria's Economic Outlook | Nigeria's Business Environment | Key Nigeria Industry Sectors | Nigeria BMI's Executive Summary | Our Africa Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Nigeria Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Nigeria's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Nigeria, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Nigeria's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Nigeria's country risks against Africa regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Nigeria's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Nigeria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Nigeria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Nigeria's Political Outlook, Nigeria's Economic Outlook, Nigeria's Business Environment and Nigeria's Key Industry Sectors.

Nigeria's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Nigeria over the next 5 years?

BMI's Nigeria Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Nigeria Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Nigerian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Nigeria.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Nigeria
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Nigeria's risk are compared with Africa regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Nigeria
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Nigerian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Nigerian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Nigerian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Nigeria's foreign relations and alignments with Africa neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Nigeria's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Nigeria, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Nigerian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Nigeria's Economic Outlook:

How will Nigerian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Nigeria through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Nigerian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Nigeria Economic Outlook Contents

The Nigeria Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Nigeria, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Nigerian government views. Underpinning our Nigeria forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Nigeria

  • Economic Activity in Nigeria
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Nigeria
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Nigeria
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Nigeria; Nigerian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Nigeria
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Nigerian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Nigeria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Nigeria database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Nigerian government economic policy

Nigeria's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Nigeria's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Nigeria.

Nigeria Business Environment Contents

  • Nigeria's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Nigeria, benchmarked against ratings for Africa and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Nigeria
    Competitiveness of Nigeria's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Nigeria's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Nigeria
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Nigeria's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Nigeria will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Nigerian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Nigeria's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Nigeria's Key Industry Sectors - Nigerian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Nigeria
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Nigeria; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Nigeria
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Nigeria's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Nigeria's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Africa Business Forecast Reports?

The Nigeria Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Nigeria.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International 

 

" Out of all the research publications that my organisation has purchased and used recently, BMI’s is by far the most comprehensive. The reports are underpinned by in-depth study of the industry and an unparalleled analytical process. We use the reports to obtain an understanding of the underlying economic situation within our country, as well as looking at opportunities for the future. "
Director, Capital Africa Group, South Africa.

BMI's Executive Summary for Nigeria

[TOP]

Growth Despite Weaknesses

President Umaru Yar'Adua has made strengthening the rule of law and the nation's democratic institutions his primary objective. In the long run this strategy will pay dividends, but presents risk in the short term, due to the weakness and instability of democratic mores at this time. The country's young democracy may not be up to the challenges ahead, and if stability evaporates, Yar'Adua's long-term goals are jeopardised. We see the major dilemmas that Nigeria faces – corruption, violence in the Niger Delta, a weak business environment – as so entrenched that, going into 2008, little is likely to change. Fortunately, we see the economy riding strong despite these weaknesses and forecast high real GDP growth, an expansion of the current account surplus, a strengthening currency and a rising equity market. Inflation poses a risk to the economy, as does oil production shortfalls brought on by conflict in the Niger Delta.

While President Yar'Adua seems committed to fighting corruption, he may lack the political strength to do so. On the one hand, Yar'Adua's anti-corruption credentials received a boost in December following the arrest of a prominent former Delta state governor; while on the other hand, the Economic and Financial Crime Commission's success in attempting to make inroads against corruption took a major hit in January, when the head of the police forced the EFCC head to resign. Meanwhile, violence in the Niger Delta has intensified, following the government's proposed expansion of security spending, and, in our view, a resolution over the medium term is unlikely.

Nigeria's economy should see strong real growth of 8.8% in 2008 led by gross capital fixed formation, and a stronger current account surplus of 23.4% of GDP on the back of high oil prices. We believe the Central Bank of Nigeria allowed oil driven naira demand to cause significant appreciation in H207, as a way to keep high levels of urban core inflation at bay, and with high levels expected to continue into Q208, coupled with the widening current account surplus, we see significant upside potential for the naira, with our 2008 year-end forecast at NGN114.0/US$. The Lagos All-Share Index had a strong year and looks set to see further gains in 2008, although we emphasize the downside risk of overvaluation of banking shares and the problems high inflation could pose to company real profit margins.

Physical infrastructure should see improvement over the years ahead, as the government's development strategy, which places a significant emphasis on national infrastructure investment, goes forward, although investment in the power sector has been frozen pending a new strategy to increase capacity. Security in the country has worsened over the year and we are pessimistic about short or mediumterm improvements. Since President Yar'Adua came into power, the fight against corruption has taken three steps forward and two steps back, as the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) began a vigorous campaign against formerly untouchable government officials but then suffered the forced resignation of its leader – going forward we are cautious. On other issues, from the judiciary to property rights enforcement, we expect minimal progress.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.