Oman & Yemen Businessforecast Industry Forecast

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The Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Oman & Yemen. The Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Omani & Yemeni market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Oman & Yemen and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Oman & Yemen's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

Key Uses for the Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report

Forecast the pace and stability of Oman & Yemen's economic and industry growth through end-2012
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Oman & Yemen, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
Assess critical shortcomings of Oman & Yemen's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
Contextualise Oman & Yemen's country risks against Middle East regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
Target business opportunities in Oman & Yemen's high-growth industry sectors
Evaluate external threats to doing business in Oman & Yemen, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Oman & Yemen's Political Outlook, Oman & Yemen's Economic Outlook, Oman & Yemen's Business Environment and Oman & Yemen's Key Industry Sectors.

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Oman & Yemen's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Oman & Yemen over the next 5 years?

BMI's Oman & Yemen Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Oman & Yemen Political Outlook Contents

SWOT Analysis for the Omani & Yemeni Market
Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Oman & Yemen.
Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Oman & Yemen
BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Oman & Yemen's risk are compared with Middle East regional and global averages.
Current Administration and Policy-making in Oman & Yemen
BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Omani & Yemeni government, assessing threats to the continuity of Omani & Yemeni economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
Omani & Yemeni Foreign Policy
BMI examines key trends and shifts in Oman & Yemen's foreign relations and alignments with Middle East neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

Benchmark Oman & Yemen's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Oman & Yemen, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
Gain valuable insights into the Omani & Yemeni government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Oman & Yemen's Economic Outlook:

How will Omani & Yemeni economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Oman & Yemen through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Omani & Yemeni growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Oman & Yemen Economic Outlook Contents

The Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Oman & Yemen, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Omani & Yemeni government views. Underpinning our Oman & Yemen forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Oman & Yemen

Economic Activity in Oman & Yemen
Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
Fiscal Policy in Oman & Yemen
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
Monetary Policy in Oman & Yemen
Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Oman & Yemen; Omani & Yemeni currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
Balance of Payments in Oman & Yemen
Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
Foreign Direct Investment in Oman & Yemen
Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
Omani & Yemeni External Debt
Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Oman & Yemen and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Oman & Yemen database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Omani & Yemeni government economic policy

Oman & Yemen's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Oman & Yemen's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Oman & Yemen.

Oman & Yemen Business Environment Contents

Oman & Yemen's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Oman & Yemen, benchmarked against ratings for the Middle East and neighbouring countries.
Country Competitiveness for Oman & Yemen
Competitiveness of Oman & Yemen's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Oman & Yemen's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

Foreign Direct Investment in Oman & Yemen
Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
Foreign Trade with Oman & Yemen
Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Oman & Yemen's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Oman & Yemen will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Omani & Yemeni market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Oman & Yemen's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Oman & Yemen's Key Industry Sectors - Omani & Yemeni Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

Latest Developments in Oman & Yemen
Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Oman & Yemen; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
5-year Industry Forecast for Oman & Yemen
Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Oman & Yemen's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Oman & Yemen's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Middle East Business Forecast Reports?

The Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Oman & Yemen.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M, Abbott Laboratories, Accenture, Access Bank Plc, ADNEC, American Express (Middle East) BSC, Arab Swiss Engineering Co ASEC Group, Astra Zeneca, Bahrain Petroleum Company, BNP Paribas, British American Tobacco SA (pty) Ltd, Crown Industries, Ernst & Young, GE International Inc, Gulf Holding Company, Hyder Consulting, Impact/BBDO, Intercontinental Bank Plc, Kellogg, Mobinil, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Telkom Wholesale Services, Tesco Corporation, Tetra Pak Egypt Ltd, Visa International

" The most interesting part of the report for our company is the Key Economic Sectors. We use it to learn more about our key industries and the development of these industries in the respective countries. It's very difficult to get specific information about the Middle East Countries; Business Monitor delivers exact numbers. "

Marketing Analyst, Faro Europe GmbH & Co. KG, Germany.

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BMI's Executive Summary for Oman

[TOP]

Moving Into 2008, Two Very Different Outlooks

Muscat is tentatively broaching political reform, but Sultan Qaboos bin Said shows little sign of wanting to push more ambitious measures such as those pursued by his fellow Gulf leaders in Qatar or Bahrain. The October 2007 Majlis al-Shura elections saw a much higher turnout, which is a positive, but no women candidates were elected. This confirms the strength of tribal identity in the sultanate – although given the restrictions imposed on candidates and political parties, voters had little else to go on apart from ties of kith and kin. We do not expect any significant boost to the powers of the Majlis in the next year, but Qaboos does need to start thinking about the succession issue if the country's future stability is to be assured. However, the government will put greater stress on social and education reform rather than explicit political reform.

These are good economic times in Oman, with the non-oil sector feeling the trickle down effect of a booming hydrocarbons economy. Enhanced oil recovery measures and new exploration activity is helping to stem a sharper fall in the country's oil output and natural gas revenues are starting to make a real impact on the Omani economy. Nevertheless, oil and gas accounts for at least 8 0% of exports and 4 0% of GDP. Tourism, services, downstream industries and other areas should make a bigger impact, but so long as oil prices are so high, hydrocarbons will remain the dominant factor shaping the Omani economy. The country is likely to see a continued liquidity boom, while privatisation efforts should yield positive results in 2008. Oman is more likely to maintain the dollar peg than some of its neighbours, and is unlikely to readjust its sceptical view of GCC currency union.

Yemen is facing renewed social strife, with major parts of the south in open revolt at their perceived marginalisation. The revival of southern animus to the government in Sana'a – as witnessed in riots in cities like Mukallah, al-Dhalia and other provinces in Q407 – is a worrying reminder of the continued toxicity of past conflicts between north and south. The government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh will meet these protests with a mix of politics and tough security measures, but this may not be enough to assure stability. Other conflicts continue to break out, with numerous incidents around oil installations, such as an incident at Shabwa in which 12 people were killed in clashes between militants and security forces in early November. Al-Qaeda's hand continues to be seen in Yemen, and the US appears to have given up on security cooperation with Saleh's administration – a reflection of Washington's frustration at Yemen's inability to deal with Islamist terrorism in the way it would like it to. These tensions are sure to bubble over in the forecast period.

Yemen's medium-term economic outlook looks increasingly bleak. Oil production is on a steep downward trajectory and government expectations of major new finds have yet to be borne out. We anticipate a near 10% drop in crude production in 2008, continuing the downward cycle through to 2011 when production may slip below 200,000 b/d. The bad news is that Yemen simply doesn't have enough non-oil sources of economic activity to help it meet its development targets. Some financial reform measures are underway, and the onset of LNG exports from 2009 will provide welcome relief, but the country faces a tough few years.

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