Pakistan Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Pakistan Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Pakistan. The Pakistan Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Pakistani market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Pakistan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Pakistan's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Pakistan Business Forecast Report | Pakistan's Political Outlook | Pakistan's Economic Outlook | Pakistan's Business Environment | Key Pakistan Industry Sectors | Pakistan BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Pakistan Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Pakistan's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Pakistan, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Pakistan's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Pakistan's country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Pakistan's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Pakistan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Pakistan Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Pakistan's Political Outlook, Pakistan's Economic Outlook, Pakistan's Business Environment and Pakistan's Key Industry Sectors.

Pakistan's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Pakistan over the next 5 years?

BMI's Pakistan Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Pakistan Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Pakistani Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Pakistan.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Pakistan
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Pakistan's risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Pakistan
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Pakistani government, assessing threats to the continuity of Pakistani economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Pakistani Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Pakistan's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Pakistan's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Pakistan, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Pakistani government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Pakistan's Economic Outlook:

How will Pakistani economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Pakistan through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Pakistani growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Pakistan Economic Outlook Contents

The Pakistan Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Pakistan, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Pakistani government views. Underpinning our Pakistan forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Pakistan

  • Economic Activity in Pakistan
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Pakistan
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Pakistan
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Pakistan; Pakistani currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Pakistan
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Pakistani External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Pakistan and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Pakistan database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Pakistani government economic policy

Pakistan's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Pakistan's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Pakistan.

Pakistan Business Environment Contents

  • Pakistan's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Pakistan, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Pakistan
    Competitiveness of Pakistan's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Pakistan's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Pakistan
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Pakistan's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Pakistan will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Pakistani market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Pakistan's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Pakistan's Key Industry Sectors - Pakistani Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Pakistan
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Pakistan; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Pakistan
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Pakistan's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Pakistan's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Pakistan Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Pakistan.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

" The most useful part is the Central Economic Forecast. It helps us in evaluating the future prospects for the country, as well as the likely trends on the per Capita Income, which would reflect the spending power for the consumers. "
Procter & Gamble, Sri Lanka.

BMI's Executive Summary for Pakistan

[TOP]

A Familiar Tale: Inflation And Politics

Pakistan faces mounting challenges if it is to sustain economic growth at current levels. The government is targeting real GDP expansion of 7.2% in FY07/08 (July-June), after economic growth of 7.0% in FY06/07 took Pakistan's average economic expansion over the past five years to 6.9%. This was the highest level of sustained growth in more than 20 years, but the economy is now increasingly exhibiting signs of overheating as the government prioritises maximising growth in order to tackle poverty. An expansive fiscal policy aimed at promoting economic growth is not only adding to inflationary pressures, but is also limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy. This is rapidly becoming a key issue for authorities as the central bank struggles to contain price growth around its 6.5% target. Furthermore, heightened political instability in the country is threatening to sour investor sentiment, endangering the investment flows crucial to driving Pakistan's economy.

President Pervez Musharraf's decision to impose emergency rule has not only impacted upon his already waning domestic reputation, but also upon international support for him. Already at a record low in terms of domestic popularity, Musharraf has further alienated himself from voters in what has been widely viewed as a pre-emptive move ahead of a Supreme Court ruling concerning his eligibility for presidential elections. The edict has also all-but ruled out any potential power-sharing deal with former premier Benazir Bhutto. Furthermore, the declaration of emergency rule has threatened to severely damage diplomatic ties with Pakistan's key allies.

Inflation spiked to 9.31% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2007, its highest level since May 2005, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) struggles to keep a lid on price growth. Food and oil prices continue to drive inflation higher, and as such, the effectiveness of rate hikes from the SBP is somewhat limited, although the bank has suggested that it will keep a tight rein on monetary policy in order to prevent inflationary expectations from spiralling out of control. Rampant inflation continues to negatively impact upon the competitiveness of Pakistani exports, and as such, the country's current account deficit will continue to widen.

Our recently updated business environment ratings have revealed that Pakistan's business environment rating has improved from 31.8 to 37.7, helping it climb 23 places in our in-house rankings from 144th to 121st. This improvement was largely down to Pakistan's much improved market orientation score, which climbed from 31.6 to 47.5 as a result of a better government intervention score and a greatly improved tax score. These improvements have been driven by the pro-market reforms employed by Pakistan to attract investment from overseas to propel economic growth, the success of which has also been highlighted by Pakistan's higher scores for physical infrastructure and bureaucracy.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.