Peru Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Peru Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Peru. The Peru Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Peruvian market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Peru and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Peru's political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Peru Business Forecast Report | Peru's Political Outlook | Peru's Economic Outlook | Peru's Business Environment | Key Peru Industry Sectors | Peru BMI's Executive Summary | Our North & South America Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Peru Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Peru's economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in Peru, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of Peru's business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise Peru's country risks against Latin America regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in Peru's high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Peru, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Peru Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: Peru's Political Outlook, Peru's Economic Outlook, Peru's Business Environment and Peru's Key Industry Sectors.

Peru's Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Peru over the next 5 years?

BMI's Peru Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

Peru Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Peruvian Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Peru.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for Peru
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Peru's risk are compared with Latin America regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in Peru
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Peruvian government, assessing threats to the continuity of Peruvian economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Peruvian Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in Peru's foreign relations and alignments with Latin America neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark Peru's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in Peru, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Peruvian government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

Peru's Economic Outlook:

How will Peruvian economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for Peru through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Peruvian growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

Peru Economic Outlook Contents

The Peru Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for Peru, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Peruvian government views. Underpinning our Peru forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in Peru

  • Economic Activity in Peru
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in Peru
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in Peru
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in Peru; Peruvian currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in Peru
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Peru
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Peruvian External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for Peru and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic Peru database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Peruvian government economic policy

Peru's Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is Peru's regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in Peru.

Peru Business Environment Contents

  • Peru's Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for Peru, benchmarked against ratings for Latin America and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for Peru
    Competitiveness of Peru's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in Peru's Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in Peru
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with Peru
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

Peru's Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in Peru will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Peruvian market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in Peru's high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of Peru's Key Industry Sectors - Peruvian Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in Peru
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in Peru; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for Peru
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in Peru's high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in Peru's major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the North and South America Business Forecast Reports?

The Peru Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in Peru.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

ABB Mexico, SA de CV, American Express Argentina, American Honda Motor Co Inc, Ansa Technologies Ltd, Antigua Commercial Bank, ATCO Structures Inc, Atlas Copco Chilena, Banco de Mexico, BASF Interservicios SA de CV, Bristol Myers Squibb, Carl Zeiss de Mexico SA de CV, Chrysler LLC, Coca-Cola Servicios de Colombia, Colgate-Palmolive CA, Glaxosmithkline Chile Ltda, Hyatt International, Lafarge SA, Levi Strauss Mexico, Merck SA, Merrill Lynch - Brazil, Siemens S.A. de C.V., Sony Ericsson, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever Caribbean, West Indies Oil Company 

 

" It is hard to say which section is more valuable in my work, as everything is very useful. The Risk Rating section is particularly invaluable, especially for example, with regards to reviewing an unbalanced economy and government such as Peru's. "
Italian Embassy In Lima, Peru.

BMI's Executive Summary for Peru

[TOP]

Still Flying High

The Peruvian economy has continues to impress, and we have upwardly revised our 2007 and 2008 growth forecasts from 7.2% and 5.9% to 7.8% and 6.4% respectively. President Alan García has aimed to achieve sustainable economic growth rates, whilst pursuing counter cyclical policies in order to avoid the boom and bust scenario normally associated with business cycles. Furthermore, by accumulating large dollar reserve holdings (at 24% of GDP), the economy is well insulated against external shocks and adverse movements in the exchange rate. The risk however, is that a sharp decline in commodity markets could potentially weigh on the economy and hence BMI's growth forecasts. Similarly, a faster-than-expected slowdown in economic activity may reveal latent asymmetries within the domestic economy. Despite these risks, we remain optimistic regarding the Peruvian economy, as the macrofundamental picture continues to improve. If the economic environment remains benign, as we believe it will, we are confident that Peru will achieve investment grade status in the next 12 months. The successful passage of the free trade deal with the US should also help underpin investment and growth going forward.

That former president Alberto Fujimori is now standing trial in Peru after seven years in exile is set to heighten social and political tensions in Peru. Combined with mass protests in response to the US ratifying the FTA, President Alan García is set to face a difficult period of mounting social unrest as he tries to push through his economic plans. García will have to focus on long-term goals such as improving the social conditions of the poorer segments of society and building a fairer society in order to improve his approval rating, which is currently as low as 27%.

Economic activity in Peru yet again surprised on the upside in Q307, marking the 25th consecutive quarter of economic expansion. The economy expanded by 8.4% y-o-y in Q307, largely on the back of continued strong private consumption, and high levels of fixed capital investment. While the economy continues to fire on all pistons, our view is that economic activity has already peaked, and will moderate slowly over the forecast period. Having said that, we are by no means implying a rapid slowdown. In fact, we expect growth to remain above or close to 4% over the next five years.

While Peru's business environment is better than its Andean counterparts, it still has room to improve. Certainly, its overall score of 43.9 is markedly less than Chile's 66.3 (considered the regional benchmark). Peru will need to focus on improving its judicial framework in order to strengthen its institutions as well as consolidating its commitment to an open and market-friendly economy. A key challenge going forward will be to bring the black and grey markets into the formal economy, which would vastly improve the effectiveness of Peruvian fiscal and monetary policy. On a more positive note, Peru may become the second country in Latin America to sign a free trade deal with China, which is encouraging in our view.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
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has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
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