Philippines Businessforecast Industry Forecast

The Philippines Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in the Philippines. The Philippines Business Forecast Report helps businesses with Philippine market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in the Philippines and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of the Philippines' political, economic and financial prospects through end-2012, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International.

 

 

 

Key Uses of the Philippines Business Forecast Report | The Philippines' Political Outlook | The Philippines' Economic Outlook | The Philippines' Business Environment | Key Philippines Industry Sectors | Philippines BMI's Executive Summary | Our Asia Subscribers | Full Range of BMI's Business Forecast Reports

Key Uses for the Philippines Business Forecast Report

  • Forecast the pace and stability of the Philippines' economic and industry growth through end-2012
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends in the Philippines, to facilitate risk mitigation strategies
  • Assess critical shortcomings of the Philippines' business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability
  • Contextualise the Philippines' country risks against Asia regional peers using BMI's country comparative risk ratings system
  • Target business opportunities in the Philippines' high-growth industry sectors
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in the Philippines, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies

The Philippines Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International includes four major sections: The Philippines' Political Outlook, The Philippines' Economic Outlook, The Philippines' Business Environment and The Philippines' Key Industry Sectors.

The Philippines' Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in the Philippines over the next 5 years?

BMI's Philippines Country Risk Ratings evaluate the short and medium-term threats posed by government instability, adverse economic policy-making, deterioration in the business environment and external shocks.

The Philippines' Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Philippine Market
    Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the Philippines.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment for the Philippines
    BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for the Philippines' risk are compared with Asia regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making in the Philippines
    BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the Philippine government, assessing threats to the continuity of Philippine economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment through end-2012.
  • Philippine Foreign Policy
    BMI examines key trends and shifts in the Philippines's foreign relations and alignments with Asia neighbours, the United States and Europe, focusing on external influences.

Key Benefits

  1. Benchmark the Philippines' risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  2. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment in the Philippines, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  3. Gain valuable insights into the Philippine government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their exclusive network of private and public sector sources.

The Philippines' Economic Outlook:

How will Philippine economic policy-making and performance impact corporate profitability over 2008-12?

BMI provides fully independent 5-year forecasts for the Philippines through end-2012 for more than 35 macroeconomic variables. We evaluate Philippine growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management, including central bank policy, on profitability.

The Philippines' Economic Outlook Contents

The Philippines Business Forecast Report features explicit BMI economic forecasts for the Philippines, with supporting commentary and analysis, for end-2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 set against Philippine government views. Underpinning our Philippines forecasts are key assumptions for the global economy through end-2012, covering growth, inflation, employment, trade and investment, interest and exchange rates in the US, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Coverage of Key Economic Issues in the Philippines

  • Economic Activity in the Philippines
    Real GDP growth; industrial growth; employment growth; inflation and consumer prices; consumption (indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence)
  • Fiscal Policy in the Philippines
    Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance (revenue, expenditure, budget balance); tax reforms
  • Monetary Policy in the Philippines
    Interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates); inflation (retail price inflation, consumer price inflation); exchange rate policy in the Philippines; Philippine currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves
  • Balance of Payments in the Philippines
    Merchandise trade (exports, imports, trade balance); current account balance
  • Foreign Direct Investment in the Philippines
    Foreign direct investment approvals and inflows; the foreign investment climate
  • Philippine External Debt
    Debt profile (short- and long-term debt; public and private sector exposure)

Key Benefits

  1. Rely upon BMI's 100% independent Forecast Scenarios for the Philippines and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  2. Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic the Philippines database, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  3. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of Philippine government economic policy

The Philippines' Business Environment:

How internationally competitive is the Philippines' regulatory environment, and what changes can be expected?

BMI assesses levels of transparency, flexibility of labour market, tax burden, development of the banking sector and credit availability, infrastructure and IT, foreign investment regime and trade liberalisation in the Philippines.

The Philippines' Business Environment Contents

  • The Philippines' Business Environment Risk Rating with SWOT Analysis
    Short and long-term business environment risk ratings for the Philippines, benchmarked against ratings for Asia and neighbouring countries.
  • Country Competitiveness for the Philippines
    Competitiveness of the Philippines' business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability over the 5-year forecast horizon, compared with regional neighbours.

Coverage of Key Business Environment Issues in the Philippines' Domestic Environment

Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; access of private sector to lines of credit; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT

  • Foreign Direct Investment in the Philippines
    Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments over the last 24 months, and of strategic sectors attracting most interest
  • Foreign Trade with the Philippines
    Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas

The Philippines' Key Industry Sectors

Which industry sectors in the Philippines will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the Philippine market?

BMI targets investment opportunities in the Philippines' high growth industries, including automotives, food and drink, infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, telecommunications and IT.

Coverage of the Philippines' Key Industry Sectors - Philippine Market Overview

Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalisation and privatisation on sector performance and prospects; friendliness of business environment

  • Latest Developments in the Philippines
    Review of latest projects, deals, privatisations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance; company rankings for national and multinational companies in the Philippines; main industry players by local sales, employee size, market share and main brands, products and services
  • 5-year Industry Forecast for the Philippines
    Historic dataset (2003-2007) and BMI forecasts through end-2012, covering headline industry data broken out by sub sector

Key Benefits

  1. Target strategic sector-by-sector opportunities in the Philippines' high growth industries, attracting public expenditure and foreign investment; identify key players and competitors driving growth, investment and business opportunities.
  2. Benefit from competitive intelligence on top national and multinational companies operating in the Philippines' major industry sectors, including analysis of recent trends in sales and market share, company strategies, product launches and latest deals.

Who buys the Asia Business Forecast Reports?

The Philippines Business Forecast Report is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in the Philippines.

Our Business Forecast Reports are relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multinational organisations around the world.

Business Monitor International's Business Forecast Report subscribers include:

3M Gulf Limited, ABN AMRO Bank, Air Liquide (Thailand) Ltd, Akzo Nobel China, Alcatel-Lucent, Alstom, American Embassy, American Express Bank Ltd, Bank of Central Asia, BNP Paribas, Atlas Copco, Bayer Cropscience, China Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd, Coca-Cola Far East Limited, Colgate Palmolive (Thailand) Limited, Cadbury Confectionery Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, Daewoo Electronics (M) Sdn Bhd, Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd, Hewlett Packard (Thailand) Ltd, Nestle (Thai) Ltd, Philips Electronics India Limited, Rio Tinto Korea Ltd., Siemens Ltd., Standard Chartered Bank, Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Volvo Truck & Bus (Thailand) Co Ltd 

 

"I find the Key Economic Sectors useful because information from this section is very important for our resident economic analysts in there study of macroeconomic fundamentals of our country "
Rizal Library, Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines.

BMI's Executive Summary for the Philippines

[TOP]

Structural Issues Coming To A Head

In line with our view, economic growth slowed in Q307 as export growth and government spending both moderated. Having reached a 20-year high of 7.5% in the previous quarter, the Philippine economy expanded by 6.7% y-o-y in Q307, and we expect this deceleration to continue in Q407 and into 2008. However, we are nonetheless anticipating economic growth to remain well supported as strong domestic demand, boosted by further monetary easing from the central bank, will help compensate for external sector weakness. We are forecasting growth to slow from an expected 6.3% in 2007 to 5.8% in 2008, before levelling out at 5.5% over the remainder of our five-year forecast period.

The prospects of a permanent peace deal with the country's largest Islamic separatist group have increased after negotiators representing the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) agreed upon boundaries for a Muslim homeland. However, despite this positive development, a number of key challenges to securing a definitive peace accord in 2008 remain. The MILF and its rival, the Moro Nationalist Liberation Front (MNLF), are still locked in a battle for dominance among the Philippines' Muslim community, and the logistics of actually passing the law to devolve power in the south of the country to the Muslims remain crucial issues yet to be resolved.

Ongoing struggles to improve tax revenue collections are threatening to hinder government plans to increase public spending. While the fiscal deficit for the first 10 months of 2007 was PHP41.5bn (US$1.0bn) against a targeted PHP57.86bn (US$1.4bn), this was mainly due to privatisation proceeds, which generated PHP59bn for the same period. Indeed, revenue agencies have consistently failed to hit their tax collection targets, and while the Philippines' fiscal debt currently remains well contained as the government curtails increases in expenditure, unless efforts to enhance revenue collection performance are redoubled President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo may have to sacrifice her pledge of higher infrastructure spending in order to achieve her goal of a balanced budget by 2009.

Our in-house business environment ratings reveal that while the Philippines has a number of attractive traits, it is still constrained by corruption, bureaucracy, its physical infrastructure and by its tax system. The Philippines achieves an overall score of 45.0, placing it at 86th out of 167 countries rated, but this score has dropped from 47.3 after we recently updated our ratings. The Philippines' infrastructure sub-rating has declined from 49.2 (and a ranking of 70th) to 40.1 (and to a ranking of 97th), underscoring the country's ailing physical infrastructure, while a score of 37.1 and a ranking of 117th for institutions highlights the Philippines' struggle to minimalise corruption and bureaucracy.

Read about our other Business Forecast Reports  

Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Europe

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon & Syria, Kuwait, Oman & Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Africa

Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Francophone West Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, North Africa, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

North & South America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, East Caribbean, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, West Caribbean

 

Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 25 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.